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Confidence Factors in Risk Assessments (Cross Posted)

Hi Folks - having developed a fairly rudimentary risk matrix for the assessment of 'risk of piping failure', I need to add a confidence factor to the formula. Clients will be generating their own criteria for a fixed number of risks to their equipment, based on Risk, Prevention and Consequence. Each of these will have a 1 - 10 classification and a series of weightings for specific anomalous circumstances. Not being a math wiz I'm not sure how I need to structure the confidence factor. I believe we should have a factor of CF = 1where the confidence is 100% that all criteria have been accurately captured in the Risk, Prevention and Consequence elements. However I'm not sure how to interpret or allocate factors for lower confidence. I guess it'll be something like:

1 = 100% ((Risk - Prevention)*Consequence) * CF 1) = Relative Risk figure. 2 = 95% 3 = 80% 4 = No confidence? Any feedback would be appreciated.
Reply to
Kahuna
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Confidence intervals, levels and factors are terms associated with statistical tests. If you use this kind of label for an arbitrary figure of merit, you are likely to be discounted by people who you would rather give credit to your approach. Using an anonymous pen name is kind of tacky too..... So, you might like to start with this note, and take it from there....

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BrianW

Reply to
Brian Whatcott

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