Prediction

Dunno if I'd call it a prediction, but I mentioned to a friend I think it'll be at 5500 sometime this year, so that's my entry.

Jon

I predict $8,000 and am pledging $5 towards a winner.

--Pessimist! :-) I'll bet it tops, oh, 9,000 in maybe 4 years. That 10,000 we had was mostly hot air and bravado: a bubble that was aching to be popped.

You have to bet about what happens on July 1, that's the condition of the contest.

Well since he didn't speak out for it on that date, I'll take Dow 9000 and add 5 to the payout.

Wes

-- "Additionally as a security officer, I carry a gun to protect government officials but my life isn't worth protecting at home in their eyes." Dick Anthony Heller

^^

That is a fairly easy bet to lose. If I were offering such a bet (which I am not), I would say one of:

"Greater than"

"Less than"

certainly *not*

"at".

Too easy to lose on that one.

Not I. I don't even know what the current Dow is -- and I don't care.

Enjoy, DoN.

The person who wins, is the one who is closest to the actual number.

i

--LOL! That's my birthday; I'll be drunk! :-)

The DOW will be wherever it is. The real interesting thing will be which companies are on that list in July. There might be a little turnover between now and July. LOL

JC

I'm willing to ante up $5... My guess is 10300. Ben the optimist

While I'm in a rare bettin' mood... The dow will be at 10,300 and your blood alcohol will be .17!

I've always wondered about the dynamics of SP500 index. I still have a fair chunk of my of my money there since I have a feeling that it is a better chance than me trying to play the market by buying and selling stocks.

My thoughts have been that no matter what takes a hit, I only owe some of it and if it drops off the index, I'll own something else that looks good.

Are you retired now John? Sure hope this drop in the market didn't delay any such plans if you had them.

Wes

trying to play

I do, as well.

Good thinking.

i

such plans if

That's easy, it's Canada Day!

Steve R.

I predict that he'll be equally as good at picking where the stock market is going as he is at picking a president. In other words, lousy.

Hawke

You should be in tax free municipal bonds right now Wes. There are several funds that hold these - Morningstar is a good one.

Retirement for me is being able to work with great people and refer the rest. There is always something interesting going on here. My December sales were an all time high and January is turning out to be a good month for money. Things are unusually quiet but that doesn't surprise me. Borrowing costs have sky rocketed, lines of credit have been severely restricted in a lot of cases and the commercial paper market is insane. Ambric just closed their doors because they couldn't raise a few million dollars in bank loans. Thats crazy.

I've now started to buy back in. I don't think it's to soon and I'm holding June 2009 California Revenue Anticipation Bonds along with a single equity.

I never really expected to retire but I did dump all of my real estate, equities and commodies positions. I was completely out in 2005 Wes. I saw this coming. The only other thing I did was pay of my place in Costa Rica. That and I "adopted" a cat that had been abandoned in the neighborhood. The owners had been foreclosed on and left kitty behind. Great cat but it never learned how to kill it's prey. It'll catch just about anything, play with it - get bored and then loose interest. Damndest thing I ever saw.

JC

It sure is nice that all the top execs at Merril got their bonuses a month early, isn't it? Gerry :-)} London, Canada

Well if I had pulled out in time, it would be a good place to have been. I'm sure the retirement age for me is going to get shoved past 66 before I get there so I still have time to try to get something back staying where I am at.

The other day, Rush, that guy you don't like talked about his investments. Did the thing where a money manager did nothing for him and then decided to put his money where he won't loose it. His concern is that he doesn't want to lose what he has and muni's is just where he has it.

You are a lucky man. You love what you are doing, don't have to do it and can pick what you do. That is a measure of success.

Down the road, I'm a bit concerned about my employer being able to renew a note. The company is well run but, as you just said, things are crazy.

Trust me, waking up to a dead rodent in bed, isn't all you think it might be. Cats like to show their work to their nominal masters.

Mom used to wake up with dead critters in her bed since Frisky liked to show off. Count yourself lucky that your kitty is ADD when it comes to prey.

Wes

From Jim Bianco

- prices quoted below are from a few days ago. "Comment - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index. The divisor for the DJIA is 7.964782. That means that every $1 a DJIA stock loses, the index loses 7.96 points, regardless of the company's market capitalization.

"Dow Jones, the keeper of the DJIA, has an unwritten rule that any DJIA stock that gets below $10 gets tossed out. As of last night's close (January

20), The DJIA had the following stocks less than $10 ...

Citi (C) = $2.80

GM (GM) = $3.50

B of A (BAC) = $5.10

Alcoa (AA) = $8.35

"If all four of these stocks went to zero on today's open, the DJIA would lose only 157.3 points.

"The financials in the DJIA are ...

Citi (C) = $2.80

B of A (BAC) = $5.10

Amex (AXP) = 15.60

JP Morgan (JPM) = $18.09

"If every financial stock in the DJIA went to zero on today's open, it would only lose 331.25 points, less than it lost yesterday (332.13 points).

"If you want to add GE into the financial sector, a debatable proposition, then: GE (GE) = $12.93

"If the four financial stocks above and GE opened at zero today, the DJIA would only lose 434.24 points.

"The reason the DJIA is outperforming on the downside is the index committee is not doing it job and replacing sub-$10 stocks, and the financials are so beaten up that they cannot push the index much lower.

"So what is driving the index? The highest-priced stocks:

IBM (IBM) = $81.98

Exxon (XOM) = $76.29

Chevron (CHV) = $68.31

P&G (PG) = $57.34

McDonalds (MCD) = $57.07

J&J (JNJ) = $56.75

3M (MMM) = $53.92

Wal-Mart (WMT) = $50.56

"For instance, if all the sub-$10 stocks listed above, all the financials listed above, and GE opened at zero, the DJIA loses 528.63 points. To repeat if C, BAC, GM, AA, JPM, AXP and GE all open at zero, the DJIA loses 528.63 points.

"If IBM opens at zero, it loses 652.95 points [IBM has risen since then - JM]. So, the DJIA says that IBM has more influence on the index than all the financials, autos, GE, and Alcoa combined.

"The DJIA is not normal as the index committee is not doing their job during this crisis, possibly because to the political fallout of kicking out a Citi or GM. As a result, this index is now severely distorted as it has a tiny weighting in financials and autos."

You could add Microsoft to the list Jim created and not be over where IBM is today in terms of the DJIA index.

A 10% positive move for IBM would move the Dow up by over 60 points. A 10% move by Citigroup would increase the Dow by less than 3 points. Having stocks with low prices clearly prevents the Dow from declining as much as other market-cap-weighted indexes like the S&P 500.

It's also the only place to get a decent return.

JC