Verner Vinge (Was Artificial Intelligence in Government)

Verner Vinge (Was Artificial Intelligence in Government)
I think Verner Vinge is a more interesting character as far as the future and AI and government goes. His prediction is that
around 2035 something will happen. His predictions were made around the 70's and we are still on course because we are still on the graphs that he had drawn then.
Whether that means we get roboticised or whether we become AI dominated, or whether there is so much change in one day that we can't be sure of the next day, nobody knows. Its singularity in human existence.
I like to think we can know what is at the singularity by probing it. One way of probing it is to look around for technologies of today and advance it as far as we can through our imagination and then see how it would fit into a singularity where change is rapid by noting how compatible it is with rapid change.
If we take neural digitization as an example, and assume that the crude attempts today will result in fully functional electronic replacement in ten years time, and then around 20 years they are digitizing entire sections of the brain, and by 2035, we reach total digital capability. Thats compatible with a singularity because our computing power through thoughts will become 'infinite' in line with the expectations at the singularity.
http://www.ecu.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/new/future.htm
There may be many other processes that exist today that could become infinite but remain compatible with the point of singularity. It will be interesting to know what others think they might be.
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The physical limits such as speed of light remain constant, even for rapidly growing organisms.
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-- Eray Ozkural
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There was a discussion on c.a.p about Vinge's singularity idea about 6 or 9 months ago. Not many people around here assigned much credibility to the idea. OTOH, I happen to think it's a very interesting idea, which will in fact partially come to pass in certain form. However, digitizing the brain is not one of the forms. Not a chance. You might digitize "something", but I doubt it will do much - in the sense of carrying forth the true "person" or "self" after digitized. 100B neurons, 100T synapses is just too much. You won't have all the memories, you won't have the person. You can always fall back on the argument that you really don't have to literally digitize the entire thing - yeah, but then you don't get what you were after. Not a chance.
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I believe that the idea that we can upload our consciousness onto a machine or replace our brain a few neurons at a time was proposed by Hans Moravec in his Mind Children book some years ago. The problem with this idea is that it fails to take into account that our consciousness may be tied to specific electrochemical reactions in our neurons. Even if you could duplicate (digitize as you say) the spiking functionality of all the neurons in the brain, this would only duplicate your intelligence. How do you know you also duplicated the person's consciousness? Answer: you don't.
Also, assuming that you could duplicate consciousness, which one is the real you? The old brain or the new brain? Does spiking neuron digitization also duplicate the conscious color and taste sensations that we all experience? I doubt that very much. We are looking for immortality in the wrong places, IMO.
As an aside, I propose that the singularity already happened eons ago. The visible universe is the result. Our little singularity will just be crushed like a bug if and when it happens. :-D
Louis Savain
Artificial Intelligence From the Bible: http://users.adelphia.net/~lilavois/Seven/bible.html
Falsifiable Predictions: http://users.adelphia.net/~lilavois/Seven/predictions.html
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