OT: Crisis insight

If you have an interest in the GM/Chrysler soap opera or the larger economic drama you should find this of interest.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_21/b4132026786379.htm
How the Mighty Fall: A Primer on the Warning Signs The author of Good to Great on how to spot the subtle signs that your successful company is actually on course to sputterand how to reverse the slide before it's too late
By Jim Collins <snip> "When you are at the top of the world, the most powerful nation on Earth, the most successful company in your industry, the best player in your game, your very power and success might cover up the fact that you're already on the path of decline." That questionhow would you know?captured my imagination and became part of the inspiration for this book. THE SILENT CREEP OF DOOM
At our research lab, we'd already been discussing the possibility of a project on corporate decline, in part because some of the great companies we'd profiled in the books Good to Great and Built to Last had subsequently lost their positions of prominence. On one level this fact didn't cause much angst; just because a company falls doesn't invalidate what we can learn by studying that company when it was at its historical best.
But on another level I found myself becoming increasingly curious: How do the mighty fall? If some of the greatest companies in history can go from iconic to irrelevant, what might we learn by studying their demise, and how can others avoid their fate? I returned from West Point inspired to turn idle curiosity into an active quest. Might it be possible to detect decline early and reverse courseor even better, might we be able to practice preventive medicine?
I've come to see institutional decline like a disease: harder to detect but easier to cure in the early stages; easier to detect but harder to cure in the later stages. An institution can look strong on the outside but already be sick on the inside, dangerously on the cusp of a precipitous fall.
Consider the rise and fall of one of the most storied companies in U.S. business history. <snip> ------
Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end?
Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).
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Jim Collins is a great storyteller, but his books are bullshit. The reason some of his "great" companies are in decline is because he picked some winners based on past track records and made some observations about them, (incorrectly inferring causation) then called it science. "The Halo Effect" did a pretty good job of debunking Collins and most of the business success genre.
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To the Taliban & Afghan mujahedeen which morphed into Al Qaeda.
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On Mon, 18 May 2009 09:52:50 -0700, snipped-for-privacy@aol.com wrote:

Correct.
Gunner
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Gunner Asch wrote:

Aren't those the very same group of guys we trained and armed against the Russians? Covertly, of course...
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wrote:

Mostly.
Gunner
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Gunner Asch wrote:

Well, they outta be pretty good then...
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wrote:

Some of them are. The young ones..the usual ones sent out to count coup..wernt trained by the US. And they die often and easily.
Shrug
Gunner
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