Look - you can all relate to this in the USA, where many of you are. The mistake of, whatever terms you apply (all pretty!) - going to war with Russia was mistaken in concept and in general a questionable idea... How did the US powers-that-be get it so wrong? Russia was supposed to collapse within about 3 weeks after "Pew-tin has made his final mistake" - and the Russia economy sailed on just fine - oil-tankers continued to sail; factories continued to produce; newspapers printed new; people went to work - all no discernable change. vvv In Langley, Virginia, if the way to get ahead and switch from barely making ends meet and having a 2 hour commute to work to a big office, good salary, residence in a desirable area a short commute to work is to
*>say what the boss wants to hear<* and that has gone on for a couple of generations - you are going to "press the magic button" and find your supreme economic weapon - your secret "nuclear option" (sic.) - isn't even seen by your opponent - you are in an empty room pressing a brightly coloured button with a lurid label but it is a "placebo" connected to nothing. You pick it up and find it's just got a flashlight-cell to make the button light-up - but that it and entirely it...
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We certainly aren't immune from bureaucracy's tendency to make their own job security their main objective, and view the world through the selective filter of how it supports that goal. Not having possibly hostile and credible threats on our borders gives us an added luxury to view events as we want to instead of realistically.
This has been especially true of the party composed of labor lawyers who lack the skill to tie their shoelaces and argue like kindergarteners. In international relations they tend to assume that whatever they want will be the inevitable outcome and don't have a backup plan, like Obama's Line in the Sand, which turned out to be a yellow piddle trail marking our retreat. I don't claim that the other party is much better.
International power politics is a master class chess game clouded by random events where even the best gambits sometimes fail, the leadups to WW1 and WW2 being good examples. Trump isn't finished yet and shouldn't be judged too hastily on incomplete evidence.
I purposely rejected an invitation into the Intelligence business. An example of its politicized yes-man tendency is Curveball, the disgruntled Iraqi who made up the chemical weapons scenario based on a personal grudge and was amazed that we swallowed it so easily, mostly for lack of other timely evidence. We tend to leave Humint, spying, up to Britain or Israel as the better experts with more historical connections. Saddam himself mistakenly believed that the CIA would see through his bluster that was aimed at Iran, not us.
An example on your side is the German Nordpol operation in which they captured and turned nearly all the agents sent to Holland without raising British suspicion, even though an agent's code allowed telegraphing caughtcaughtcaught in the encrypted message to alert his handlers. You had done the same to their spies.
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