OT: Makin' Money?

"This situation" is kind of complex. As for the recessionary part of it, the plan that Obama's advisors have come up with is pretty much Keynesian.

Good for you. Where are they getting the money they're lending to you?

Unless things have changed, credit unions operate like small, old-time banks. They're using individual deposits as reserves, and loaning out money to individuals. There are a lot of small banks around the country that are doing relatively well right now, using that old-time model.

But they're not in the mortgage business in a big way, and they aren't a real source of capital formation for business. They can thrive in this economy because there is another layer -- actually several layers -- above them, that are doing the real capital formation and business lending. Credit unions and small banks depend on a healthy level of economic growth going on around them.

Most things are pretty cheap. Food is not, but look around at clothing, residential building materials, etc.

As someone who doesn't want to buy stuff, you're part of what's causing the downturn. I say that tongue-in-cheek, but I think you recognize the irony: This is an economy that depends heavily, something like 70%, on consumer purchasing. Without it, there is nothing for anyone to do. Unemployment ran up to 25% or so in the '30s because no one was buying, company's laid workers off, and then nobody had a pot to pee in.

Who is it you're talking about here?

There's really no choice. The question is where to pour it. Nothing is certain there. And it isn't certain how much will have to be poured.

What *is* certain is that we're on a deflationary sleighride downhill, and we know where that goes if we don't stop it: Depression.

Unless you know where to cut out enough spending to do the trick. (The answer is, nowhere.)

There may be some devaluation. But when our economy starts moving upward again, the value will return.

If you think about what you're saying, you mean that the consumers will start consuming, or we'll be up a creek.

-- Ed Huntress

Reply to
Ed Huntress
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Maybe because I dont own a credit card?

Gunner

"They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist..." Maj. Gen. John Sedgewick, killed by a sniper in 1864 at the battle of Spotsylvania

Reply to
Gunner Asch

That's the bottom line.

But it's not happening.

And if it stays that was, which I expect it's going to for a while, well, then what?

Reply to
cavelamb himself

You stimulate the economy by tossing a hundreds of billions of dollars into it. If people are out of work, you create jobs -- with infrastructure projects, if you have to. If they're just short of cash, you give them tax rebates or tax cuts, and interest cuts. Whatever it takes.

When you look at the history of stimulus programs intended to overcome recessions, there are two things that most economists agree upon: they've always been too little, too late. Mostly too late. That's why Obama is gearing up for this "jolt," as he calls it. If pragmatic, non-ideological economists were running the program, it would have happened three to six months ago. And it would have taken a lot less than a trillion dollars worth of deficits to do it if it had been caught early enough.

There are three things that need to be done: People have to be employed. They need to have access to credit, whether it's mortgages or consumer credit. And they need to have confidence that the economy will be OK. More than anything, it's confidence that counts.

Then they're off and running. At that point you start watching out for inflation, and you raise interest rates as necessary to control it. It's mostly fiscal policy for stimulus, monetary policy to cool it off.

That's the basic program for consumption stimulus. There is no supply-side issue in the present situation; supply-side stimulus now would just throw money after a nonexistent problem. The problem is all on the consumption side, and confidence is the main part of it. As the economy warms up again, you have to keep an eye on the supply side as well. Stimulus may eventually have to be switched to the supply side. But not now.

And deficits, for the moment, are all but irrelevant. They have nothing to do with what's happening to the economy now. As soon as you can, you knock off the deficits, because they make it harder to apply fiscal stimulus when you have to. But don't even think about deficits when you're in a recession and deflation is setting in. Compared to the economic losses resulting from a deep recession, they're trivial.

-- Ed Huntress

Reply to
Ed Huntress

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