I want to create an android

snipped-for-privacy@msn.com wrote:


As the AI and robotics community are probably not really interested in creating one, the really most interesting question here is:
What do _YOU_ think, has the best chance of being helpful in achieving this?
Claudio
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snipped-for-privacy@msn.com wrote:

The entire field of AI has been trying to answer that question for over 50 years now and no one yet has the answer. There's not even a consensus on which direction to take or how long it's going to take. But, that doesn't stop people from forming opinions and I've got mine which I'll share with you.
Yes, some form of signal processing network such as nural networks I believe is going to be required to solve the problem. However, most neural networks today aren't likely to be the answer - it's likely to be some new type of neural network.
I for example have been playing with real time temporal pulse rounting networks and I think they have a lot of hope. But that's just one example of how the answer might be some type of signal processing network which is really unlike any of the more traditional ANN.
There's been growing excitement in pulse networks of all types in the last decade. But is this going to be the answer, or just one more small step along the way? No one will really know until the job is done.
I also strongly believe that AI is a reinforcement learning problem at it's core. So in addition to building a real time signal processing network, it must be trained with reinforcement learning. So that's the path I think is going to lead to a Data-Bot. It's a real time, temporal, reinforcement trained signal processing network.
I also think we are much closer to seeing some real intelligence coming out of machines than most. I've recently made another 10 year bet with some friends for example. These were the same friends I made a 10 year bet about AI back around 1974 - which I lost. I don't intend to loose this time. :)
I'm sure that we already have all the processing power we need to create human level intelligence - we just don't understand enough about the algorithms yet.
What I think we can produce in these next 10 years is a demonstration of machine learning that will be advanced enough to make people stand up and take notice for the first time in history. The type of machine that will actually look and act alive and conscious - one with maybe dog like behavior if not monkey or human like behavior. One where the behavior is all learned, and not simply hard-coded by some animation artist. We might even get it to learn and use langauge to some level in the next 10 years.
Recreating all the complexities of human personalities however is going to take longer. Maybe 50 years. So it might be 50 years before something like Data or C3P0 is walking around with us. But within 10, I think we will have intelligent conscious machines which will be smart enough for people to really start to understand that AI is not just something for sci-fi stories. And advanced enough to make people realize it's time to start talking seriously about what this technolgy means to the future of mankind.
And actually, if we get as far as I expect we will get in the next 10 years, then that might create so much excitement in the field that it will only take another 10 after that to reach, and go past, full human intelligence. I would like that becuse it would mean I would have a chance to be alive to see it happen. That for me would be more fun than to see than the moon walk.
BTW, the people that think evolution based systems (alife etc.) is the answer, have the right idea, but the wrong approach. Reinforcment learning systems are the right approach. Reinforcement learning and evolution based learning are basically the same idea with different implementation. They both create systems of directed change which evolves the system towards a goal and that is the basis of what intelligence is (the world and life looks like it was designed by something intelligent because it was - evolution is inteligence working at a geologic time scale). But DNA-like evolution which works with replication, mutation, and natural selection, is too slow to use as a tool for creating an intelligent machine. We can solve the problem faster using our brains. And that solution is to find a signal processing network that can be trained by reinforcment learning (i.e., one which slowly shapes it's signal processing behavior based on real time reward and punishment events).
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Curt Welch wrote:

As I agree with the first half of the sentence, I have trouble to accept the second half. From my point of view, the core of the problem is more of a political as of a technical nature. It is a question of money and purpose and not the question of new unknown technology.

I don't bet, because I don't like to, but if I would, I would bet against you. I mean we have such technology already today and there, so either you have won already your next 10 years bet even from todays point of view or you won't win also in 10 years for the same reasons as today.

Even if it would become possible to gather all the enthusiasts like you together, where would they get that money necessary to make it true from? Most of the people consider it much more important to buy a new car or travel around the world as to donate their money to space or AI research. Try to motivate young people being now 16-20 years old having a much more real chance to make it come true than you yourself to become in a same way enthusiastic than you and you will probably see, where the true obstacles on the way to androids are. Try to tell your wife (if you have any), that you would like to replace her by a more intelligent and sportive android in the future and it can happen to you, that it becomes apparent, that there is not only no need to create such android, but there are strong forces against making it reality.

If there will be much intention, there will be sure also a way. I currently see the problem not that much in finding the way as in spreading and creating the intention.
Claudio
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On Thu, 26 Jan 2006 10:47:25 +0100, Claudio Grondi

LOL. You must be with the NSA and they've told you about one of their top secret black projects. They know their secret is safe with you because nobody's going to believe you. ahahaha...
Louis Savain
Why Software Is Bad and What We Can Do to Fix It: http://www.rebelscience.org/Cosas/Reliability.htm
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Traveler schreef:

Is it an typical amarican thing that the government is secretly trying to produce AI and is actually ahead of the normal scientific comunity?(dont answer that:P ) I do think there is some kind of a money/motivation thing. When the world population really want to have a mining facillity on mars than we would have one yesterday.
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Some of the enthusiasts happen to be rich. Like Jeff Hawkins - the guy beyhind the palm piolt. He's set up and funded his own reasearch centers.

That's only true about basic research projects which have a low probablity of producing anything of short term practical use - which is currently true for both space and a lot of AI. However both have produced spin-off technologies that are of practical use and which do get a lot of funding (character recognition used by banks and the post office for example).
If anyone got technology to the point of producing anything like actual dog intelligence, there would be huge flow of money into the research.

Oh, don't be silly. My wife would love to get her own android assistant as much as I would. She's always said she wants her own wife. We would own 100 of them if they existed, and we could afford them, and we could build them in a way that they would actually want to work for us without us having to pay them what we would have to pay humans to work for us.
Even if human intelligence and slavery was incompatable, we would love to have android pets. I've already got a few of them, but I want ones that are as intersting and as loving as my dog and my cat as well.

There's plenty of interest and funding in AI already. Have you not seen things like the DARPA challenge where they paid millions to whoever could build an automated car? AI funding and research has only continued to grow over the years as the technologies slowy develop.
It could even be argued that all the growth of computer technology is already AI research. And it's one of the largest single investments other than people which companies these days have to invest in. It's going to morph at some point into a pure AI business where the PCs sitting on the desks of all the office workers will actually take over the job of the people sitting at the desks (it's already been happening for the past 60+ years).

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