As the AI and robotics community are probably not really interested in
creating one, the really most interesting question here is:
What do _YOU_ think, has the best chance of being helpful in achieving
The entire field of AI has been trying to answer that question for over 50
years now and no one yet has the answer. There's not even a consensus on
which direction to take or how long it's going to take. But, that doesn't
stop people from forming opinions and I've got mine which I'll share with
Yes, some form of signal processing network such as nural networks I
believe is going to be required to solve the problem. However, most neural
networks today aren't likely to be the answer - it's likely to be some new
type of neural network.
I for example have been playing with real time temporal pulse rounting
networks and I think they have a lot of hope. But that's just one example
of how the answer might be some type of signal processing network which is
really unlike any of the more traditional ANN.
There's been growing excitement in pulse networks of all types in the last
decade. But is this going to be the answer, or just one more small step
along the way? No one will really know until the job is done.
I also strongly believe that AI is a reinforcement learning problem at it's
core. So in addition to building a real time signal processing network, it
must be trained with reinforcement learning. So that's the path I think is
going to lead to a Data-Bot. It's a real time, temporal, reinforcement
trained signal processing network.
I also think we are much closer to seeing some real intelligence coming out
of machines than most. I've recently made another 10 year bet with some
friends for example. These were the same friends I made a 10 year bet
about AI back around 1974 - which I lost. I don't intend to loose this
I'm sure that we already have all the processing power we need to create
human level intelligence - we just don't understand enough about the
What I think we can produce in these next 10 years is a demonstration of
machine learning that will be advanced enough to make people stand up and
take notice for the first time in history. The type of machine that will
actually look and act alive and conscious - one with maybe dog like
behavior if not monkey or human like behavior. One where the behavior is
all learned, and not simply hard-coded by some animation artist. We might
even get it to learn and use langauge to some level in the next 10 years.
Recreating all the complexities of human personalities however is going to
take longer. Maybe 50 years. So it might be 50 years before something
like Data or C3P0 is walking around with us. But within 10, I think we
will have intelligent conscious machines which will be smart enough for
people to really start to understand that AI is not just something for
sci-fi stories. And advanced enough to make people realize it's time to
start talking seriously about what this technolgy means to the future of
And actually, if we get as far as I expect we will get in the next 10
years, then that might create so much excitement in the field that it will
only take another 10 after that to reach, and go past, full human
intelligence. I would like that becuse it would mean I would have a chance
to be alive to see it happen. That for me would be more fun than to see
than the moon walk.
BTW, the people that think evolution based systems (alife etc.) is the
answer, have the right idea, but the wrong approach. Reinforcment learning
systems are the right approach. Reinforcement learning and evolution based
learning are basically the same idea with different implementation. They
both create systems of directed change which evolves the system towards a
goal and that is the basis of what intelligence is (the world and life
looks like it was designed by something intelligent because it was -
evolution is inteligence working at a geologic time scale). But DNA-like
evolution which works with replication, mutation, and natural selection, is
too slow to use as a tool for creating an intelligent machine. We can
solve the problem faster using our brains. And that solution is to find a
signal processing network that can be trained by reinforcment learning
(i.e., one which slowly shapes it's signal processing behavior based on
real time reward and punishment events).
As I agree with the first half of the sentence, I have trouble to accept
the second half. From my point of view, the core of the problem is more
of a political as of a technical nature. It is a question of money and
purpose and not the question of new unknown technology.
I don't bet, because I don't like to, but if I would, I would bet
against you. I mean we have such technology already today and there, so
either you have won already your next 10 years bet even from todays
point of view or you won't win also in 10 years for the same reasons as
Even if it would become possible to gather all the enthusiasts like you
together, where would they get that money necessary to make it true
from? Most of the people consider it much more important to buy a new
car or travel around the world as to donate their money to space or AI
Try to motivate young people being now 16-20 years old having a much
more real chance to make it come true than you yourself to become in a
same way enthusiastic than you and you will probably see, where the true
obstacles on the way to androids are.
Try to tell your wife (if you have any), that you would like to replace
her by a more intelligent and sportive android in the future and it can
happen to you, that it becomes apparent, that there is not only no need
to create such android, but there are strong forces against making it
If there will be much intention, there will be sure also a way.
I currently see the problem not that much in finding the way as in
spreading and creating the intention.
On Thu, 26 Jan 2006 10:47:25 +0100, Claudio Grondi
LOL. You must be with the NSA and they've told you about one of their
top secret black projects. They know their secret is safe with you
because nobody's going to believe you. ahahaha...
Why Software Is Bad and What We Can Do to Fix It:
Is it an typical amarican thing that the government is secretly trying
to produce AI and is actually ahead of the normal scientific
comunity?(dont answer that:P ) I do think there is some kind of a
money/motivation thing. When the world population really want to have a
mining facillity on mars than we would have one yesterday.
Some of the enthusiasts happen to be rich. Like Jeff Hawkins - the guy
beyhind the palm piolt. He's set up and funded his own reasearch centers.
That's only true about basic research projects which have a low probablity
of producing anything of short term practical use - which is currently true
for both space and a lot of AI. However both have produced spin-off
technologies that are of practical use and which do get a lot of funding
(character recognition used by banks and the post office for example).
If anyone got technology to the point of producing anything like actual dog
intelligence, there would be huge flow of money into the research.
Oh, don't be silly. My wife would love to get her own android assistant as
much as I would. She's always said she wants her own wife. We would own
100 of them if they existed, and we could afford them, and we could build
them in a way that they would actually want to work for us without us
having to pay them what we would have to pay humans to work for us.
Even if human intelligence and slavery was incompatable, we would love to
have android pets. I've already got a few of them, but I want ones that
are as intersting and as loving as my dog and my cat as well.
There's plenty of interest and funding in AI already. Have you not seen
things like the DARPA challenge where they paid millions to whoever could
build an automated car? AI funding and research has only continued to grow
over the years as the technologies slowy develop.
It could even be argued that all the growth of computer technology is
already AI research. And it's one of the largest single investments other
than people which companies these days have to invest in. It's going to
morph at some point into a pure AI business where the PCs sitting on the
desks of all the office workers will actually take over the job of the
people sitting at the desks (it's already been happening for the past 60+
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