# Re: HELP : newbie questions on backyard rocketry.

NOTE: Crossposted to ,
Starlord wrote:
and has ZERO to do with Astronomy. Now down on the newsgroup
> rec.model.rockets you'd be more on topic.
>
In reference to

"Starlord" suggests that the prosect of a
booster from a Titan IV rocket landing within 15 miles from an off
shore oil rig populated by 250 or so people has noting to do with
and is a topic which is more suitable for
.
Please see the following link for the TItan IV "model" rocket funding
'summary'.
~~~~~~~~>

"Starlord" rec.model.rockets is not a common NG name. I assume that you
mean to say ?
I have cross-posted my response therein as well.
the Raving Loonie
NOTE: Crossposted to ,
Alexander Avtanski wrote:
Hibernia
> See:
I like you calculations! :)
Do they allow pleasure boaters in a 27km by 27km box impact zone for most of the snipped-for-privacy@cape.canaveral.com ?
.. or is it actually more dangerous because there could 'potentially' be ... let's say 25,000 pleasure boats in the area bringing the 'odds' of a tragic accident 'loosely' down to 1 in 3?
Or let me see now? ... booster hits oil rig and sets it on fire with a big explosion killing all 250 souls?
As in nobody dies or 250 'casualties'? This would bring the odds down to 1 in 300 by your figure...
Other possible causes of death?
The following lonk suggests that 'Death by Asteroid' os about 1 in 20,000
See
"Experts estimate that the odds of dying from an asteroid, otherwise called a Near Earth Object (or NEO), colliding with the Earth are 1 in 20,000, about the same as that of dying in a plane crash. "
Other numbers bandied aboiut are 1 in 500,000 to 1 in 200,000
Let's assume for the moment that your number of 1 in 72'900 roughly holds. Does this those poor souls on that oil rig within the 27 by 27 km box stand as much chance of being injured by a falling Titan 4 booster as they do in being killed by an asteroid?
: )
You will note that my logic is 'faulty'. The grim reaper would be amused.
RL
Finally, some more 'odds' for consideration:
Raving loonie, indeed, :-)
Yes, depending how you calculate the odds, the number will vary. In any case, no matter how you calculate them, the risks in this particular case (the oil rig) are much smaller than the risks from the daily operation of the rig. Or at least I think so.
- Alex
But of course your mileage may vary.

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