Bruce Favinger ( firstname.lastname@example.org) wrote: : > Very Possible They Will -- IF the economic contraction gets : > worse! : : I don't know Jim. They tell us we're at the start of an economic recovery : with more new jobs. They wouldn't lie now would they? :
Perhaps they're just not telling all of the truth, by omitting that formerly high-paying jobs are being moved overseas and replaced by "Mc Jobs":
IT Careers Caught in a Cross-Current
"...``Tech is kind of a mixed picture these days,'' says John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based outplacement company. ''The offshoring of jobs has become a real cause for concern. It's because of the global labor market. And ironically, the technology has made that an inevitability. It's become the Napsterization of tech work.''
Challenger's comments on the high-tech job market come on the heels of two dismal labor reports.
October showed the largest number of job cuts in a single month in the past year. Job losses last month rang in at 171,874 -- a 125 percent jump in layoffs over September's 76,506 job cuts. It was the highest monthly figure since October of 2002.
The October surge ended a streak of five consecutive sub-100,000 job-cut months. The lowest figure during the five-month period was June when 59,715 job cuts were announced.
Challenger sited the fluctuating technology job market and offshore outsourcing as two factors that led to the high number of job losses last month. And Challenger doesn't see much improvement on the near horizon.
In a new poll of human resources executives conducted by Challenger, 78 percent did not expect to see any significant upturn in hiring until the second quarter of 2004. None of the respondents predicted an upturn in the first quarter. Eleven percent said hiring would pick up in the third or fourth quarter. Another 11 percent of those polled said there would be no hiring rebound at all in 2004.
And the second labor market report wasn't much cheerier.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas released a report showing that job creation in October was heaviest in low-paying areas. Retail, temporary help service firms, and food and drinking establishments were some of the top job creators. Weekly earnings in each average $366, $318, and $225, respectively. All are 30 percent to 57 percent below the national average of $521 per week for all industries.
And more workers are being forced into part-time jobs, while others are being forced to take two jobs to make ends meet. The report notes that 7.5 million Americans worked two or more jobs in October, up from 7.3 million a year ago. The number for which the primary and secondary jobs were both part time increased six percent from 1.7 million to 1.8 million.
: : We just ran an ad for office help at $8 an hour thinking we would get some : kid not long out of high school that would work cheap for at least a few : months. What we got were dozens of calls from both men and women who have : college educations and others with 10 to 30 years of work history who are : at the point where they'll take anything they can get. :
BW Online | December 2, 2003 | U.S. Programmers at Overseas Salaries
"Rather than send IT work to India, a Boston startup sought locals at the same money. The result: plenty of applicants -- and a lot of questions..."
Underemployment Has Onetime Professionals Working Part-Time, Blue-Collar Jobs
"...Wilkins is one of a growing number of professionals who've been forced to take low-paying, often part-time, jobs to make ends meet while dealing with the stress of hunting for work in a labor market that no longer demands their skills and experience.
Counting them in addition to the nation's 8.5 million unemployed, plus discouraged job-seekers who stopped looking for work, produced a 10.8 percent labor "underutilization" rate in February, according to the bureau. That's up from 10.1 percent a year earlier..."
The labor "underutilization" rate is the U-6 rate, which is 9.7% for November, 2003:
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
"U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)"
: : You can see the anxiety in their faces. :
For underemployment, there's no compensation
"They know what it's like to not be able to look their children in the eye when they cannot provide for them as they once did. For some, it's the sting of no longer being the main breadwinner. Of going from being self-reliant to relying on unemployment benefits. And experiencing the dread and desperation of not knowing where the money will come from.
They are among the 2.3 million Americans, including 55,100 in Connecticut, who have been unable to find new employment since January of 2001. Or, like Meriden residents John Bauman, Leon Hall and Rosalind Skinner, the "underemployed": those working part time or temporary full-time jobs, earning far less than they previously made..."
: : What was on my mind last week was how to cut out some cash for a brass : locomotive. This week I feel privileged that I have enough to buy a pack : of #11 blades. I've seen some very bad times in my life and right now is : not anywhere near the best its ever been. I understand how they must feel : and how hard it is to fight the hopelessness that can overtake you. :
Contra Costa Times | 05/13/2003 | Job losses sap morale of workers
"...One month ago, Kevin Flanagan took his life in the parking lot of Bank of America's Concord Technology Center, on the afternoon after he was told he had lost his job..."
: : I also understand that things can and do get better. : Yes, they're getting much better -- for Communist China, India, Russia, Romania, and all of the other countries where jobs are being migrated to.
: : But to see so many in such tough situations simply saddens me. :
We should consider ourselves lucky to have had a viable middle class so long, and remember these as tomorrow's "good old days".
: Bruce :
Job migration is changing the world:
IHT: Outsourcing: The calculus of migrating jobs
"Symptom or cure?
The outsourcing of jobs to lower-cost locations is not new, but it has a chilling new adjective: professional. Advances in communications technology have enabled white-collar jobs to migrate to the developing world as never before - a phenomenon that has provoked an outcry from sectors that had thought themselves invulnerable.
Money Report convened a round table of experts at the Algonquin Hotel in New York last month to explore how job migration is changing the global landscape, and what those changes might mean for investors.
Participants in the panel, which was moderated by Erika Kinetz, were: Eric Johnson, Tuck School at Darmouth, Business Professor Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute, Economist Diana Farrell, McKinsey Global Institute, Director Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, Chief Economist Edmound Hariss, Guinness Atkinson, Fund Manager
Erika Kinetz: How big an issue is job migration?
Stephen Roach: [by conference call from Singapore] Offshore outsourcing is a huge deal. Twenty-three months into recovery, private-sector jobs are running nearly 7 million workers below the norm of the typical hiring cycle. These are shortfalls we have never seen before..."
--Jerry Leslie Note: email@example.com is invalid for email
"Grandpa, what was a 'model railroad' ?"