Chrysler Today...GM Tomorrow?

On Sun, 3 May 2009 15:29:45 -0700 (PDT), Too_Many_Tools


Only problem, and it is a HUGE problem in all of north America, is the ENTIRE electrical generation infrastructure and the ENTIRE grid that supports it will need to be totally modernised, updated, upgraded and upsized before any conversion to electrical transportation can even be CONTEMPLATED, much less implemented.
EVEN IF all the vehicles weighed 1500 lbs.
That is not going to happen in 25 years. 25 years of TGDI engines would be a good run if it was combined with the downsizing that will be required to go electric. No reason North America can't commute with 360cc turbo direct injection gasoline powered vehicles TODAY.
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That isn't a problem, it's an opportunity just as rural electrification was in the US seven decades ago. In fact, it's exactly the same opportunity now that it was then and one of the relatively few investments the government could make that would produce jobs NOW and yield a return for decades.

No, the major portion will be running by 2016 and the entire mess done by 2020.

Sure there is. Nobody's buying and the market is flooded with inventory that will increasingly be discounted - all the way to zero if required. The upside of that is that it won't mean diddly that the electrical grid isn't ready to go now, as long as we get to work with a serious effort. It's the war we ought to be fighting instead of the two that we are. You aren't one of those limp wristed pansy's are ya' <G> Suck it up Buttercup! LOL
JC
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On Mon, 4 May 2009 18:25:59 -0700, "John R. Carroll"

I agree - but like rural electrification, it will take several decades. And this is a MUCH LARGER challenge.

Boy, someone's optimistic!!!!!

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I'll grant you that but it's simpler on the one hand because of existing highway infrustructure and America is transitioning from 5.5 million unemployed to 11 or twelve million. We also have nearly a third of our manyfacturing cpacity avaliable.

LOL Just anxious. and only because we need to get started. Striking while the iron is hot counts for a lot. A lot of useful capacity and infrastructure could quickly be brought on line transitionally and converted to permanent installation. That model has the advantage of using the transitional experience to perfect the finished product. We put a man on the moon in less than ten years but it never would have happened at all had someone not stepped up to the plate. The length of the project is less important than facing realities and deciding that now is the time and then funding the effort. Start where the cars are concentrated.
JC
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On Mon, 4 May 2009 20:28:40 -0700, "John R. Carroll"

You will need to train them as steelworkers, riggers, linemen, electrical engineers, electricians, millrights, etc to design, build, and install the required towers and lines, not to mention the new generating plants (which will need to be "clean and safe". (Nukes are the most effective solution - but not likely to be accepted.) Pushing through the locations, expropriating the land, doing the ecological studies etc. required to allow building either plants or transmission lines ALONE will take 2 decades - before "the shovelgoes in the ground".
Anyone who thinks the american electrical infrastructure can be updated/upgraded within 20 years is DEFINITELY dreaming.
Rural elecrification in the fifties / sixties was NOTHING compared to today's challenge. My dad did a lot of rural electrification work in Ontario.

California? Good luck!!!! The central eastern sea-board (Washington, Virginia/PA etc) will be just as big a challenge. In built-up areas, how do you install enhanced power transmission infastructure? You need to tear down to open a corridor - and in most cases it will not end up that slums that need to be addressed happen to be in the ideal path of a power corridor.

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I think the pen will end up being mightier than the sword here and there are plenty of qualified individuals aroung in the catagories you list.

We'll see, and I think we actually will. Interesting stuff here
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/solar /
and here.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/car/open/clip-scene.html
Check out Lovin's vehicle - especially the carbon fiber stuff.
JC
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On Tue, 5 May 2009 19:42:36 -0700, "John R. Carroll"

Among the masses of unemployed???????????

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Yes, among the unemployed. The building, electrical and construction trades have been floored by this downturn. Heavy equipment operators are taking contract work outside of the US in surprising numbers. This catagory has seen decreasing capacity utilization for over two uears now, in the US. America is down to a single builder of high voltage electrical transmission hardware, Waukeshaw Electric, in Milpitas California, and I'm not sure they aren't foriegn owned. I believe there are only two in Canada but it might just be one. Look around and you'll see that businesses bidding infrastructure projects resulting from the latest stimulus bill are actually driving project costs down.
American household debt has now reached three dollars and fifty cents per dollar of GDP. What this means as a practical matter is that consumers are going to spend the next few years deleveraging in the same way that financial institutions are. Every cloud has a silver lining, but of course, the reverse is also true. Financial institutions are in the same boat but they tend to be able to suffer pain better because they spread the pain over large numbers. Only Russians, East Europeans, Asians and Africans "downsize" at the family level to do this. Americans are less likely to layoff or sell a kid to match a reduced budget with overhead. That is the equivalent.
Also, California has had non-photovoltaic solar power on line in the commercial system since 1986, look up Kramer Junction,.and a two Gw plant is being constructed today out in the Mojave. I is slowly dawning on people that stable long term prices for power is what counts. Germans, for example, pay twice the world average per Kw hour and their fossil fuel costs ( gasoline and diesel ) are among the highest in the world. Neither of those have prevented them from having a very high standard of living. The reverse is true, in fact.
JC
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On Mon, 4 May 2009 20:49:28 -0700 (PDT), Too_Many_Tools

How much gas will your current car burn over the next 10 years if you can keep it on the road that long? How much will you spend on repairs?
Conservatively, you will likely burn $1000 of today's dollars worth of gas (at today's price) per year Replacing with a 360cc TGDI engined vehicle would reduce that to less than $500 per year. In 10 years, that is $5000 in gasoline alone - at TODAYS prices. In the next ten years, gasoline is likely to double, in price at the very least.
No reason a good, serviceable car could not be built and sold for $10,000 US if id did not need to be loaded up with all the extras and built to withstand the assault of the masses of "taks" on the road today..
If everybody replaced vehicles returning less than 28MPG (US) with more efficient AMERICAN BUILT cars the American economy would rebound significantly. American built does not HAVE to be American designed, or UAW built - but it would make the rebound quicker, deaper, and more sustained..
If everybody hangs on to what they are currently driving until it falls apart around them, there will be no American built vehicles available to replace them, and the economy will remain in the sewer for years (and possibly a decade or more)
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"Get a horse"
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Well Obama will just have to find a way to tax you more for the cars you are driving, and take those cars from your garage and give them to someone less fortunate. Please post the coordinates for the garage where your extra capitalist cars are being kept comrade.

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D Murphy wrote:

If that ad is an example, I don't know anyone that would be impressed. It is a LOSER. ...lew...
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On Mon, 4 May 2009 09:51:24 -0700 (PDT), Too_Many_Tools
<snip>

<snip> The United States has a significant problem just getting [and keeping] their head out of their a$$.
While I do not agree that a "consumer society" is a "good thing," if we have one, it is critical that the people earn enough to consume. Clearly this has not been the case for at least 20 years based on the falling inflation adjusted disposable per capita income.
The fall back position to maintaining high consumption rates without rising incomes is credit availability at all levels. As we have seen over the last 18-24 months, this requirement has not been met. Indeed, much of the existing credit structure was "burned to the ground," in a search for immediate, short-term personal gain, by the same people that are now telling us how to "fix" it,
Economic recovery/expansion depends on the growth of high value added operations [to generate real income] which in turn depends on long-term credit availability in significant amounts (or forced draft industrialization on the Soviet model).
The Chrysler bankruptcy where the normal/customary rules of asset allocation are being nullified and even the secured creditors with colatteral/liens on real property are being "stiffed," possibly in the interest of some indefinite search for social justice, shows how even this is being sabotaged. The impending General Motors bankruptcy is likely to amplify and expand this trend.
What investor in their right mind will lend money to a corporation with no assurance that at least most of it will be paid back, or that their collateral would be "redistributed" in the case of bankruptcy for the "greater good" despite black letter law to the contrary.
Assuming an end of government [taxpayer] finance, look for an expansion of no-interest, no-colatteral, no-lien financing where the only way for a corporation to raise large amounts of long-term money is to sell their hard assets such as land and building, and to then rent these back under tenant-at-will [no lease to avoid leasehold problems] with ownership legally transferred, with an agreement to purchase the asset for some nominal sum after successful completion of the [20 year] rental agreement, i.e. "rent to own" on an industrial scale. The imputed "interest rate" will be very high, interest will not be deductible because there is no interest, and the other tax benefits, e.g. depreciation, will shift to the "lender." The corporate "assets" will also take a hit. While this will limit recover/expansion, it may well lead to much more honest accounting/tax reporting.
Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end?
Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).
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About twenty years.
Dan
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On Sat, 2 May 2009 18:56:49 -0700 (PDT), Too_Many_Tools
<snip>

--------- It all depends how much taxpayer money Uncle Whiskers pours into GM and Chrysler to keep them on life support, and how long the recession lasts.
At the current burn rate, FoMoCo has about another year without Federal [tax payer] help (which is always a possibility) and the bk of the GM/Chrysler suppliers may have a significant impact on the production of some vehicles. However it appears that FoMoCo made contingency plans to import huge amounts of components from their vendors/suppliers in areas not affected by the GM/Chrysler bk, or have made arrangements to have their tools/tooling moved to "stable" US suppliers to avoid a total shutdown, still....
As long as GM and Chrysler keep producing vehicles and selling these below cost, which is typical in a bk situation, Ford's position will continue to worsen.
As Chrysler and GM have proven to be no longer viable for-profit vehicle producers, they should be liquidated ASAP, and their market share distributed by free market allocation among the remaining suppliers.
Most definitely, the GM/Chrysler production capacity should be removed from the market. Any automotive producer purchasing the GM/Chrysler production facilities should be forced to scrap an equivalent amount of their [older/obsolescent] existing production capacity. Be reminded that the transplants currently have considerable excess production capacity, and although suspended, several manufacturers such as Volkswagen still have plans for new/additional manufacturing capacity, apparently funded with state/local economic development [tax] money.
Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end?
Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).
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wrote:

"I will bet that the vultures will get a haircut...a big one."
That's a bet you would lose. Anything they don't get from the court will be payed by AIG. That outcome couldn't have happened if there had been a voluntary write down.
JC
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On Fri, 1 May 2009 13:50:44 -0700, "John R. Carroll"
<snip>

<snip> Just came across this gem. Every hear of a company with 1000:1 leverage? ---------- Bankruptcy Sleuths Find Cash in Trader Receipts for Lap Dancers By Seth Lubove
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- As Sentinel Management Group Inc. neared collapse in August 2007, piling up $950 million in losses, the Northbrook, Illinois-based investment firm wrote clients, saying it was yet another victim of the credit crunch -- an asset manager that grew too fast as it tried to ratchet up gains for customers.
The Securities and Exchange Commission didnt buy the explanation of the 28-year-old company, which had about $1.4 billion under management, most of it for futures or commodities traders and hedge funds.
<snip> ==>He also wondered why Sentinel had leveraged itself to the eyeballs; it had almost $3 billion in debt on a capital base of just $3 million.<=<snip>
--
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOFZVf8Tr3D0&refer=home
Unka' George [George McDuffee]
  Click to see the full signature.
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On Fri, 01 May 2009 13:47:34 -0500, F. George McDuffee

---------- A follow-up of interest. The top 10 Chrysler creditors in their bankruptcy action.
Chrysler Top Ten Creditors Ohio Module Mfg. Co. $70,337,248 BBDO Detroit Inc. $58,055,133 Johnson Controls Inc. $50,312,511 Continental Automotive $46,995,802 Cummins Engine Company $43,912,930 Germersheim Spare Parts $36,231,566 Comau Inc. $32,069,462 Visteon Corp. $25,608,790 New Process Gear $19,636,149 Denso International $18,704,831
A former CEO and vice-chairman of Chrysler Robert Lutz (1986-1998) has just filed as a Chrysler creditor. He was also CEO of Exide [bankrupt] and just resigned as vice-chairman from the board of GMC.
http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2009/05/bob-lutz-joins-list-of-chrysler-creditors /
Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end?
Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).
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distro pruned to rcm & amc
On Fri, 1 May 2009 14:42:26 -0700 (PDT), snipped-for-privacy@rock.com wrote:

--------- This may be of interest.
----- Toyota Partmakers in Japan Hire Detectives to Hunt Bankruptcies By Makiko Kitamura and Masatsugu Horie May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Hironori Minezawa, a private detective, spends his days investigating struggling autoparts makers in Toyota City, Japan, as cuts by Toyota Motor Corp. end a 7-year expansion for the citys thousands of parts suppliers.
Toyota slashed production following the automakers first loss in 59 years, pushing some partsmakers into bankruptcy. Minezawa said he is employed by Toyota suppliers to find out whether subcontractors may fail, leaving his clients unable to fill their own orders. <snip> Sub-suppliers profit margins are restricted because they are expected to open their books and show their costs to customers, he said. The price of their products is then typically decided after delivery, Kawabata and Miyao said.
Part of Toyotas success is based on its ability to squeeze parts makers, said Bob Sliwa, advance design director at Nagoya-based Cobo Design Co., which works with Toyota suppliers such as Denso Corp., the worlds largest listed auto- parts maker.
Tied to Toyota
Toyota group companies like Denso and Aisin Seiki Co., Japans largest maker of car transmissions, in which Toyota has equity stakes, sell to automakers around the world. Sales to carmakers other than Toyota make up about half of Densos business. In contrast, most secondary suppliers in Toyota City make parts only for Toyota. <snip> ----- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGcEKX2DBZ4M
Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end?
Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).
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On May 5, 7:26pm, snipped-for-privacy@snyder.on.ca wrote:

I may be premature (hope not) in saying this, but it seems like the critical point has passed and there's not going to be a catostrophic collapse.
<crosses fingers>
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