I didn't know that anyone was building and selling a 350 bhp 2.0 liter aito engine Anthony. Who is it?
As for "All of the US automakers either are now or are almost in production with GDI engines. Many of the Japanese have them already, or are about to. "
Let's take a breath and do some math. Current landed and domestic passenger auto inventory in the US is currently between five and six million units. You'd think it would be easy to nail this down but folks aren't honestly reporting their numbers these days. It's come down to what the meaning of "is" or in this case "inventory usold" is. LOL
The same sort of Voodoo is going on with actual and projected sales. The consensus number for North America seems to be between 10 and 11 million units projected for 2009, two million of those have been built and aren't showing up in inventory but if you look at reported sales figures, there are about 1.2 million floating around somewhere. BTW, I think all of this mystery is related to the grooming going on to put the proper complexion on the market by GM and Chrysler as well, to some lesser extent, by the others, and sales for the year will come in at about nine million units. A death knell, in other words.
Let's now have a look at the employment/customer side of the equation. Between now and the end of June, the US economy alone will shed another two million jobs which will bring the total reduction of the work force for 2009 in at a loss of 4.4 million or perhaps even five or six million.
I doubt, under these circumstances, that there is room for additional production beyond about two million additional vehicles to fill the balance of the demand in 2009. That future production you menioned, which BTW is most of it, will never be built.
Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Audi, Volkswagen, and all of the rest are going to be fighting over so few units that they will be able to pat themselves on the back if they only lose their ass in 2009. This is why I don't think either Chrysler or GM will emerge from bankruptcy. They can't present a credible plan to get them through what I believe will be a three year run of six to eight million unit years. The government won't be able to come to the American public with a three year plan. Folks won't stand for it for an instant.
So here we are, and if you entertain the notion that the North American market for passenger vehicles if dead until 2012, what you have to do is get ready for 2013, which means tossing your existing product out and focusing on what the future will look like from 2015 or so on and preparing to build those as quickly and as well as you can. Under ordinary circumstances your ten year theory is entirely plausible. Given current realities and recognizing honestly what the industry will have to work with for the next five years yields a very different result. A high tech buggy whip would have been great eight or ten years ago and IIRC, Volkswagen had the stuff you are talking about then. Five years from now the buggy whip market will be dissapearing or have largely dissapeared, and there will not be a legacy foot hold because nobody is going to buy thing ONE for the nest three or so years. Absent any momentum TDI and the rest will just die on the vine.
Like I said, what you are talking about is as likely to be promise unfilled because it was overtaken by events. Things could be worse, and they might be. A wave of modest social unrest that wasn't much in North America might unfold around the world due to the consequences of the economic downturn. That would add significantly to everyones problems.
I'll bet the Germans and Japanese see things about like this when they aren't kidding themselves and the Korean's came right out a couple months ago with a pretty similar vision. Sometimes it takes relity a while to catch up with perceptions and attitudes Anthony. Especially when things change as rapidly and significantly as they recently have. Just ask Murphy if you think I'm kidding or wrong about that.
I might be way off on the rest, but not that.