With the SOX I've seen doing this, the flicker is happening when fully run-up. I haven't watched one of these during run-up, so I don't know if it happens during run-up. Temperature wasn't low when this happened, and I suspect that's not relevant.
I don't have a sample dead one with this failure mode (which isn't common), so I can't inspect the lamp to see what visible failure indication there might be. As a pure guess, I might speculate that the emission material is sputted off the electrodes, and it can't sustain an arc in thermionic emission mode. The 35W SOX has an ignitor/starter which is probably repeatedly trying to start it. The larger ones use a leakage reactance transformer to provide both the starting voltage and current limiting, because the arc voltage is too high for a simple series ballast on 240V, and so don't need an ignitor/starter. I don't think I've seen the larger ones flashing; when the emission coating wears out, they seem to fail to light up at all (or with only a very dim glow around the electrodes which you can't see from the ground).
IME more common failure mode of SOX is the arc tube develops a leak and the sodium is ejected into the outer vacuum tube, where it often forms an opaque mirror coating on the inside of the bulb facing the ejection point, so the light no longer escapes through part of the bulb (can block out most of it eventually). The arc tube seems to be able to lose a lot of sodium in this way, yet still work, but eventually it turns into a dim red neon light which never runs-up (nicknamed a "red burner"), as there's no longer enough sodium left in the arc tube, just the neon starting gas.