Anyone know if the current high scrap prices are forcasted to go high, stay the same, or fall over the next month or so? I know that here its higher than its ever been.
Rick
Anyone know if the current high scrap prices are forcasted to go high, stay the same, or fall over the next month or so? I know that here its higher than its ever been.
Rick
Gee, I wonder where "here" is?
I know a man who's machine shop / income has slacked off a bit and he had lots of scrap around so he's recently sold three truck loads and loading more as the time & need is available.
I heard China is buying all they can get. Might be getting ready for US and we're fool enough to provide the material for them to conduct it! :-(
I.E. It might go even higher, but that's not too scientific an answer. :-)
Al
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Tod Eng> Anyone know if the current high scrap prices are forcasted to go high, stay
It's pretty much the same around the world right now.
Ed Huntress
Look up _American Metal Market_ magazine online.
Ed Huntress
My scrap dealer still appears to be in "hoard" mode so I'd assume he thinks the price is going to continue to go up.
I get approached several times a week by strangers wanting to buy my scrap. It seems the high prices have created a bunch of new scrapmen out there. I'm starting to get worried that they may cut the fence to try to get the
30,000lbs plus sitting in the yard, with quite a bit of it premium punchings.I'll probably sell it next week after I generate a few thousand pounds more of punchings. Who knows how long the price will stay up and the first price drop could be quite a bit. I have more important things to do than speculate and try to guess the exact time to sell my scrap. The best price I can get next week is good enough for me. It is still more than I could have got a month ago.
One bonus to the high prices is that the streets and alleys are cleaner. If anybody dumps steel items illegally, it doesn't sit long before somebody loads it and scraps it.
Les
On Fri, 05 Mar 2004 23:56:43 GMT, "Ed Huntress" vaguely proposed a theory ......and in reply I say!:
Yep. Wherever you are in the world, it's "here". Actually it's been like for along time...but then so has "right now" I guess.
So is my joke a joke, or did I walk right into this? Please be honest, whichever way you reply to that.
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Spike....Spike? Hello?
On 06 Mar 2004 06:42:48 GMT, snipped-for-privacy@aol.comremove (Ljwebb11) vaguely proposed a theory ......and in reply I say!:
hmmmmm...don't be too hasty. There was a guy I remember who hoarded old car tyres and they all laughed at him....until they found a way to make either new car tyres, road surfaces or ute tray covers from them.
That was an extreme example. But you are sitting on an appreciating asset. Recycling has emotional appeal, and is becoming increasingly popular. There is a constantly increasing market as well. You are one of the few people that has a lot of what it takes to profit from overseas outsourcing.
I have watched scrap prices rise by 33% over the last year or less. I see more and more ads for free removal of car bodies in any condition. Some will even pay for them, in any condition.
And don't slack of about getting stolen. I recently had a car "stolen" from my place by a towing company. It was a wreck. I got it back, but it was not easy. Luckily I had an alert neighbour.
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Spike....Spike? Hello?
Get a big mean dog and hang onto it for a while. My steel dealer says the Chinese are on a major building jag that is going to last for some time. Mills around the world are working at or near capacity and scrambling to find scrap.
OTOH, it could just be an excuse for charg>>Tod Eng>>
And then I have the guy down the road that just tosses his structure steel in a big dumpster. He will gladly give me 6 foot pieces of 6 x 6 square stock, he says that way he doesn't have to pay for it to be removed. On the light side of things, the local Kubota dealer gives away all the
1 x 2 you want, its used in the skidding. The tractors come over in a steel crate, now is the time to grab it all the new models are coming in. It is small stock but 1 x 2, 1/2 x 1-1/2, and 1 x1 is useful for some projects. I made some nice projects with this stuff.
Well, I'm here, and you're there. But wherever "there" is, it's the same as "here." At least, in terms of what's happening in scrap. Otherwise, you're really there, and it's not the same as here. In most cases.
Ed Huntress
Higher as in what you can expect to get if you sell or higher in what you can expect if you buy scrap drops? Big difference........buy= higher, sell= lower, thats the way it always is.
Visit my website:
What I've read, the analysts have forecasted steel prices to go higher due to increased demand from countries such as China.
--George
On Sat, 06 Mar 2004 14:13:48 GMT, "Ed Huntress" vaguely proposed a theory ......and in reply I say!:
Sophist is not honest....
And only right now....in which case....?
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Spike....Spike? Hello?
On Sat, 06 Mar 2004 06:52:23 -0500, Glenn Ashmore vaguely proposed a theory ......and in reply I say!:
Yeah. Good luck.
Sorry. I had images of missing fingers etc.
But OW I agree.
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Spike....Spike? Hello?
The Chinese just announced at their Party congress that they intend to slow down the growth of their economy. One of the ways they plan to do that is to restrict the number and size of construction loans. That should put a damper on their demand for structural steel.
The primary reason they say they want to do this is that Chinese growth largely hasn't benefited the rural peasant. They say that they must pause to spread the new wealth to the rural peasants or risk loss of political stability.
It is hard to understand how limiting national economic growth would benefit rural peasants. Analysts seem to think the real reason is that they are facing instability in their financial institutions right now due to non-performing loans, and if they don't get a handle on that, they're facing a catastrophic financial crash.
Whatever the real reasons, they're saying that they want to cut economic growth by at least half. If they do it, that will have profound effects on their projected demand for steel, oil, and other resources.
Of course the way you can tell if a politician is lying is to note if his lips are moving. So this may all be smoke and mirrors.
Gary
One should note..that its entirely possible that old machine tools may wind up in a smelter in China also..so be on the lookout NOW and save some machines.
One can only wonder how many fine old machines wound up being shot at the Japanese and Germans after the scrap drives of the 40s
Gunner
"Gun Control, the theory that a 110lb grandmother should fist fight a 250lb 19yr old criminal"
On Sat, 06 Mar 2004 14:18:45 -0500, Gary Coffman vaguely proposed a theory ......and in reply I say!:
Well whatever their reason, I can see how that happens. Economic growth benefits those who chase the money much more than "the masses" aho just sit around and wonder what's happening. The faster the growth, the more centralised the money in most cases.
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Spike....Spike? Hello?
Well, obviously the subsistence economy peasant doesn't benefit as much from economic growth as those who are directly participating in it. The span between the poorest of the poor and the richest of the rich does get larger, because they're basically operating in two separate economies. But just slowing the rate at which the rich get richer doesn't do anything to address the issue that the poor are still poor.
Dampening economic growth doesn't make sense as a way to address the real issue. That's the fact that the vast majority of China's population still lives by subsistence agriculture. As China moves to being a modern first world nation, it is going to have to shift most of its population away from subsistence agriculture. Lowering economic growth just prolongs the time when most of China's people have to eke out a living that way.
China is doing a lot to speed up rural development, but they need to do a lot more. A vigorous economy generates a lot more money, including more money for the government. That's more money they can spend on rural development. With less growth, there is less money, and less that can be spent on bringing the rural population into the first world economy.
In short, curbing growth ensures that the poor stay poor for a longer time. That it also ensures that the rich get richer more slowly is basically irrelevant. China's main problem is that the majority of its population is underemployed. That's the main social issue they have to address. They can't solve that problem without an enormous amount of economic growth.
China has been running a 9% annual growth rate, which sounds like a lot. But *per capita* it is lower than any other first world nation. In other words, China *needs* high growth just to achieve parity with other first world nations because most of its huge population are still subsistence peasants. If they cut growth in half as they're saying they will, they'll be going backwards with respect to the rest of the first world.
Gary
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