OT: Meaningless statistics

Peter Fairbrother wrote (~ish):

It's all a bit quantum. Or not, really.

And I still don't know what a 75% chance of rain on Thursday means - if I stick my head out of the window sometime on Thursday, is there a 75% chance that it will be raining?

Or is there a 75% chance that it will rain sometime on Thursday?

Or does it mean that I need 75% of a raincoat?

Regards, Tony

I would have thought that one was obvious. Three quarters of the area in question will experience rain at some time on that particular Thursday.

I think that the Met office do a marvelous job, given that they don't have a nice stable, continental, weather system to deal with. I also respect the serious computational power that is involved in models that can predict the UK weather for more than a few hours ahead. It must be really boring to live towards the East of the US, or in China and have predictable weather.

In 1984 I went on my first working trip to South Korea. At one point, in early April, we asked one of the locals when the rainy season would start. "21 May" we were told. We laughed it off, thinking that the local was taking the piss out of the yonguks. Came the 21st of May and the heavens opened. We were humbled.

Mark Rand RTFM

And presumably, soaked also?

Regards, Tony

Very. 15" of rain in a day is interesting, to say the least.

Mark Rand RTFM

from Peter A Forbes

JG

Talking about meaningless statistics, Year 1981

1. Prince Charles got married
2. Liverpool crowned Champions of Europe
3. Australia lost the Ashes
4. The Pope Died

Year 2005

1. Prince Charles got married
2. Liverpool crowned Champions of Europe
3. Australia lost the Ashes
4. The Pope Died

In future, if Prince Charles decides to re-marry who should he warn first, European football clubs, Australia or the Pope?

Well with global warming you should be getting more than 2 these days

Regards, Tony

Probably get an extra one behind the left ear.

-- Regards,

John Stevenson Nottingham, England.

Visit the new Model Engineering adverts page at:-

ITYM June 1975 - June 1976 was the hottest for years, with national hose bans, and standpipes in the street.

No, despite what it says on that page I definitely meant 1976. It snowed in Yorkshire on the 1st June and by the end of the week it was that hot the tarmac was melting.

If we average the number of days recieving rain per year, we could just specify a constant.

I wonder what my accuracy percentage would be if I based my forecast on yesterdays readings? How would that compare to that of the pros?

Wes

IIRC, the chances that any one day's weather is the same as the previous day's weather is better than 50%.

Regards, Tony

IIRC, the chances that any one day's weather is the same as the previous day's weather is better than 50%.

Regards, Tony