Given that the forecasting is so miserably wrong most of the time, I am surprised that anyone takes any notice of the weather forecast anyway.
"Warmest April since records began! " scream the headlines, but how long ago was the 'Coldest April" and the " Wettest April", and who can remember "Snow in June!" in the UK? it wasn't that long ago....
Peter
-- Peter & Rita Forbes Email: snipped-for-privacy@easynet.co.uk Web:
Peter Fairbrother wrote (~ish):
It's all a bit quantum. Or not, really.
And I still don't know what a 75% chance of rain on Thursday means - if I stick my head out of the window sometime on Thursday, is there a 75% chance that it will be raining?
Or is there a 75% chance that it will rain sometime on Thursday?
Or does it mean that I need 75% of a raincoat?
Regards, Tony
I would have thought that one was obvious. Three quarters of the area in question will experience rain at some time on that particular Thursday.
I think that the Met office do a marvelous job, given that they don't have a nice stable, continental, weather system to deal with. I also respect the serious computational power that is involved in models that can predict the UK weather for more than a few hours ahead. It must be really boring to live towards the East of the US, or in China and have predictable weather.
In 1984 I went on my first working trip to South Korea. At one point, in early April, we asked one of the locals when the rainy season would start. "21 May" we were told. We laughed it off, thinking that the local was taking the piss out of the yonguks. Came the 21st of May and the heavens opened. We were humbled.
Mark Rand RTFM
And presumably, soaked also?
Regards, Tony
Very. 15" of rain in a day is interesting, to say the least.
Mark Rand RTFM
from Peter A Forbes
1947JG
1976 and 1977 - I lost both my tomatoes and runner beans in both years. 1976 turned out to be a scorcher.
Talking about meaningless statistics, Year 1981
Year 2005
In future, if Prince Charles decides to re-marry who should he warn first, European football clubs, Australia or the Pope?
Well with global warming you should be getting more than 2 these days
Regards, Tony
Probably get an extra one behind the left ear.
-- Regards,
John Stevenson Nottingham, England.
Visit the new Model Engineering adverts page at:-
1976
ITYM June 1975 - June 1976 was the hottest for years, with national hose bans, and standpipes in the street.
No, despite what it says on that page I definitely meant 1976. It snowed in Yorkshire on the 1st June and by the end of the week it was that hot the tarmac was melting.
If we average the number of days recieving rain per year, we could just specify a constant.
I wonder what my accuracy percentage would be if I based my forecast on yesterdays readings? How would that compare to that of the pros?
Wes
IIRC, the chances that any one day's weather is the same as the previous day's weather is better than 50%.
Regards, Tony
IIRC, the chances that any one day's weather is the same as the previous day's weather is better than 50%.
Regards, Tony
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