IPMS and New Orleans

" snipped-for-privacy@rcn.com" wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@rcn.net:

Hey, I was already in the area when the Mayor for life got popped. The man set a very low standard for politicians to fall to. Falling beneath is almost unimaginable.

Maybe "Gray Ghost", but I am not so ashamed of my opinion that I hide behind a fake name like it was a white sheet. Go away now.

Your right. Please accept my apology. Its been a long week and I'm not being very tolerant right now.

I'm guessing most of those school buses are piloted by licensed bus drivers possibly the civic mom and dad types that fill those seats in this area. If so, they would have evacuated with their families (if they were smart) or taken shelter. So you're gonna need 100+ drivers with the requisite licenses or skill to drive the buses and who don't mind standing in harm's way - or can be directed to do so. Tough group to round up I'd say when you're encouraging everyone to leave or hunker down.

It's probably not a bad idea to incorporate govt and public transit into your evacuation plan - you just need to do that months if not years in advance of when you need it. As an ad hoc plan slapped together as a response to Katrina looming off shore, I just don't see that plan coming together effectively. The problem as witnessed by the crowds at the Superdome and convention center is that in addition to just the bus drivers you're going to need large contingents of support for crowd control and security. The scenes at the departure points could rival those of the panicked mobs fighting to catch the last ride out of Saigon in 1975.

The reality is a hurricane has to present itself as a clear and imminent danger to warrant evacuation. By the time that happens of course, the margin is so slim that the most effective way to manage an evacuation is for the authorities to provide ample warning and place the burden on the individual to effect his or her own flight. Which is pretty much the approach in use today. But what about those that fall thru the cracks for whatever reason?

In the future the best alternative for vulnerable locations such as NO may be to establish substantial dedicated storm shelters that have the capacity, personnel and emergency stores to sustain a sizable population for a short amount of time pending the arrival of a gathering long term relief effort. If that means investing in a hurricane proof building on a scale with the Superdome, but one that is specifically designed for emergency services rather than recreational use, than that just might be a cost they'll have to endure. Another alternative might be for the Navy or another authority to pre-position specifically designed or tasked ships for the same purpose in at risk hurricane zones during storm season. The idea behind either approach would be to shelter, sustain and support those individuals staying behind, unable to evacuate or endure travel due to sickness.

Beyond that I'm not sure what else you can do to safeguard the lives of those that live somewhat precariously.

WmB

I know, he was beyond embarrassing for the whole area not just DC.

People, Rather than getting vexed about slights and other indignities, just take these arguments, opinions and discourse to an appropriate forum, not rec.models.scale which has been specifically set up to disseminate modeling information and discussions related to model-building.

See individual comments, lengthy as some of them are, below.

What are you smoking? RMS has always had off topic posts and even vicious flame fests, get a grip, this shit is mild.

Like any group you have some who come to talk about the topic, some who get carried away in the passion of the moment occasionally, and others who live to throw rocks from the comfort of the nature of the internet for their own self entertaining ego boosts.

The latter ones I watch and when proven they throw more rocks than on-topic posts, I killfile them. Frees my valuable time for what I want to read instead of feeding their narcissistic needs; and ultimately reclaims the newsgroup through my newsreaders' filters. Three clicks and they're muted.

Think of it as applied Darwinism.

TMB

Yep, pretty much. And the more ambitious the plan like the dedicated shelters and ships I suggested as a possible means of temporary relief ,the more substantial the lead time, as you also mentioned. Of course they'll squander the time focusing on investigative hearings trying to fix blame rather than solve problems or plug gaps in their crisis management strategy.

That's where my thinking is at also. A mandatory, thorough, disciplined evacuation is the best line of defense. But you'll never get 100%. If for no other reason assuming you get a 100% civilian evacuation, the expense of some nominal hard shelters might be justified as a means of protection for the police and emergency services that are always compelled to remain behind. They could also assist as a means of pre-positioning advanced relief efforts when the storm subsides.

The Feds are the logical choice. If nothing else Katrina has exposed how unsuited state and local govt is to the task, especially when the crisis spans three or more states and yet they are geographically linked and thus bottlenecked. And we're talking about repeat business here, hurricanes aren't going away no matter how cold the tree hugging moonbats think they can make the atmosphere.

I think the way to go is to kick into action ahead of the storm. When Katrina presented herself as the imminent danger to LA/MS/AL compelling the Governors to declare states of emergency, I think a mechanism should kick into play similar to martial law. Once the declaration is made responsibility is transferred to the appropriate federal authority and everyone else pretty much loses their say in the matter. I would transfer it to a military authority and as such the military units and personnel entrusted with managing the pre-landfall evacuations in coordination with the local authorities would be crystal clear in whose voice carried the most weight. I think General Honore's presence on D-Day Minus One with absolute authority in hand, would have made all the difference in the world in getting everyone on the same page. It's still going to take a few things to get things rolling, but these ensemble news conferences trying to get every and any state or federal official with state ties (real or imagined) did not accomplish (to use Mr. Nagin's choice of words) a GD thing.

As for replenishment, there always seem to be a crisis somewhere in the world. Overlapping resources might be the answer. Maybe the HQ for all future US relief efforts around the world should be based in these hurricane zones. That way they're always up and running serving somebody somewhere - and if we ever need it, they can be drawn upon to serve American localities.

Money is of course the bugaboo. At some point we're going to have to take a look at what it is costing us by doing it the way we've been doing it and how we did it with Katrina. I for one am not critical of the katrina relief efforts. No other country could have mustered the effort any better on such a scale - though I do believe the Chicoms would have had 1 million people on those levee breaches and had the gaps plugged inside of an hour ;-). Of course they may be using bodies instead of sandbags on the job...

I envision these centers possibly being administered along the lines of a military base or arsenal in regards to securing the property and assets. You won't require as robust a security as there seems to be an intrinsic understanding between civilians and the military that storming onto such facilities is not good for one's health. You make sure the stakes are raised that high so there is no misunderstanding a shoot to kill policy is second nature. These plans and measures eliminate any local leaders or attitudes that might be sympathetic to unlawful behavior or fail to perceive such things as a problem.

Such craft are admittedly ambitious. If the concept had any merit whatsoever, my proposed design would start with something along the lines of marrying the protective qualities of a bomb shelter with the transport and logistics support afforded by an amphibious assault ship. The ship is pre-positioned in its assigned area, stationary or on patrol who knows, at the onset of hurricane season. I'm thinking something less mobile and more physically robust myself but that might be the wrong approach. Maybe the best approach is speed and mobility. Like an assault ship in reverse you concentrate on using amphibs and choppers to lift as many as people as possible to the ship. Secure all aboard and depart the area. Any of those left behind when the decision comes to disembark or hunker down the ship, would/could be transported to one of the permanent hard shelters discussed earlier. You'd want to avoid the calamity of stardning people anywhere in view of a news camera.

I'm not trying to sell this as something easily accomplished or even worthwhile. Just offering some thoughts for arguments sake. I think the amount of skill required to pull off something like this with a major storm brewing on the horizon would be substantial. If mastered though, it could become one more arrow in the quiver that might have an application beyond hurricane relief - let's say a possible NBC terror attack amid the gulf coast refinery areas that prohibit an inland evacuation (for whatever reason) and an immediate sealift is required. It never hurts to be better at what you do than you already are.

Until then - I too think an effective and undiplomatic evacuation plan is the best route.

On a modeller's note, that would be one more ship kit to build. ;-)

WmB

Not that it would be somewhat narcissistic to feel the need to inform everyone of one's disdain for certain posting habits. ;-)

WmB

:)

TMB

Simply not opening the posts is also a cure....some people are just too dense to grasp that and/or killfiles.

This statement is accurate - and fortunately those "thinking otherwise" are the majority (if generally silent here) in the US.

America is a complex heterogeneous country were many peoples and ideas combine and clash on a daily basis. Thankfully, our differences are generally not resolved by coups, car bombs or assassins, but by open dialog. Our form of democracy survives, not because of the rule of the majority, but because of the majority's tolerance of the minority and of the minority's right to disagree with the majority - no matter how vocal they may seem.

A professor once told me that you cannot substitute volume for logic in making an argument. Some people don't understand this, but it is useful information because when your "opponent" to your point of view starts raising the tone of his/her voice (or in this case postings) or resorts to ad hominem attacks, you are winning the argument on logic.

Lauri, your observations ring clearly because of the soundness of your logic not because you are "yelling".

Thanks for understanding.

"Bill Woodier" wrote

FYI Bill: reading comprehension skills are unwelcome on the Internet. They get in the way of the screaming.

KL

When madness reigns, 'tis folly to be wise.

Doug Wagner