Folks:
In a recent MR, I read some speculation on this subject. One reader was reported as predicting an era-shift to the 1980s-1990s in 20 years, which would overtake the Transition Era. Thinking about this, I honestly can't see it.
It's not nostalgia on my part. There is a hint of antiquarian interest, and steam engines are awesome in action, though I've only seen about 3. There is no way I could remember what mainline steam or busy passenger traffic actually was, not from personal experience. I'm not old enough for that, but at any rate, even if I could remember steam, I'd have to be quite ancient indeed to have nostalgia for the steam power and railroad equipment of the mid-1800s, if personal memory was the only criterion.
I think we see too much concentration on that. When I look at the history of model railroading, I don't see a constant nostalgia-based hobby, with modelers always copying the scenes of 30 years ago. In fact, until roughly the 1950s, modelers were overwhelmingly interested in modern railroads, with some few, probably as numerous as the McGees and Landows of today, interested in very early period stuff. Most people went for the Hudsons, K4s, and 4-8-4s that were the latest thing, sometimes even automatic signaling and train control. Even such old-timers as Frank Ellison used modern equipment, although the scenes on Ellison's road did seem to recall an earlier era.
Then steam ended in 1:1 railroading, but not on models. Modelers kept using it. Some staunchly continued into more modern times with steam - such as John Armstrong. Most of us probably don't have that kind of chutzpah, and thus the Transition Era became popular. It allowed one to run modern steam and diesels together, to use new equipment as well as vintage hangers-on, and it was the last era before the most obvious retrenchments started in many areas of prototype railroading - retrenchments that are now largely over, but which have left us with a railroad that, though still very interesting even to me, is arguably lacking in a great many fascinating attributes which were once plentiful. (The passengers will please refrain...)
Furthermore, the Transition Era is in some degree self- sustaining. So much information and equipment is available that its charms are kept fresh and current, able to attract neophytes who have never seen a living, breathing Erie 4-8-4, and a little bit of this arcane lore makes those scattered glimpses of an earlier era all the more ensnaring - that EW Y RK NTR L on the peeling bridge, that old timetable found in the attic. Indeed, I can attest that such relics are almost more irresistible if their true source is not a matter of personal memory. We see evidence of this in such places as the RPI club, which is made up largely of students who never could have personally known a thing about the world they have amassed such data on.
I don't mean to discount the appeal of current or more recent railroading. I do actually miss Conrail, which now that I think of it had a lot of Pennsyism left in it, for better or worse. Furthermore, I really like the idea of modeling the modern scene - which of course is hard to reconcile with my liking for vintage equipment. I do think that we will eventually see nostalgia for the 1980s expressed in model railroad form, which will at least be less absurd than other expressions involving, say, clothing styles. However, I think that the Transition Era has so much to offer that it will continue to remain as a huge chunk of model railroading for the foreseeable future.
Cordially yours: Gerard P. President, a box of track and a gappy table.