On Fri, 16 Aug 2019 14:44:23 -0700 (PDT), walter firstname.lastname@example.org
But 80% or 90% of what? I know that the article quoted uses the
wording that "Ninety percent of registered voters" but is that true?
According to one site I visited that would have been 200 million
voters, as of 0/19/2016. Another site tells me that there were 153.07
million as of 2018.
It seems apparent that no one really is sure how many "registered
voters" there are, at least until the next election, and 90% of
"we're not really sure" is how many?
On Friday, August 16, 2019 at 6:04:11 PM UTC-4, John B. wrote:
To the nearest thousand, there were 153,066,000 registered voters at the time of the 2018 elections, out of an adult citizen, US population of 228,832,000 -- 67%. Margin of error, 0.3 at 90% confidence interval.
These figures are known to very high accuracy. You just have to know where to find them. The Census Bureau compiles the official registration counts from each state.
As for what the public knows about "assault rifles," they mean the military-style semiautomatic rifles that have become widely popular for killing masses of people. Those also are the ones that are the subject of proposed bans and buy-backs.
On Fri, 16 Aug 2019 19:41:04 -0700 (PDT), email@example.com wrote:
Your missing the boat. I've found several sites claiming different
numbers for the number of voters and the reference to the gun survey
says ninety percent of the voters? Now is 90 percent, ninety percent
of the sites that I came across? Is it 90% of the legal number of
registered voters as of 2018? Noting that a few blokes might have
registered in the last few months. Or is it 90 percent of a number of
carefully selected individuals that they refereed to as registered
Incidentally, I had a good friend that owned a company that did
surveys, ranging from "should fridges be sold "up country" on the
never, never?", to Will building a copper refinery, on the S.W. coast
be a good investment?"
One of his claims was that he could design any survey to "prove"
anything that you wanted, and given that his business seemed very
successful I'd guess that he was probably correct.
And just think. From the 1940's an "assault rifle" has been defined as
"An assault rifle is a selective-fire rifle that uses an intermediate
cartridge and a detachable magazine."
I believe that the term was first used by the Germans, "Sturmgewehr",
in about 1944.
The Statistics class I took in college covered polling bias errors in
some detail. One example was that busy people at work were difficult
to reach, leaving the unemployed at home to fill the sample size
quota. Guess how they tend to vote.
I went in early to dodge rush hour and took night engineering classes
to keep up with my very challenging aerospace job, so I couldn't be
contacted between 6AM and 9 - 10PM for the intense NH Primary polling.
polling bias from that class?
I don't, but then my Internet search capability is limited by low
bandwidth (currently 44k dial-up) and 3G/4G data caps, the
disadvantage of not having cable TV. I find what I already know the
keywords to look for.
IIRC the faulty polling he described took place in pre-Internet New
York where receptionists filtered calls to employees. The remedy was
supposed to be to try harder to reach everyone on the original random
list, a recipe to miss the deadline and alienate them instead.
There were two Statistics classes with identical course descriptions,
one in the College of Engineering and the other in Liberal Arts. The
Engineering one conflicted with a course I badly needed so I took a
chance on the Liberal Arts one, which turned out to be more sociology
than math. Its light-weight homework was welcome since I was also
struggling through Quantum Mechanics.
I didn't suffer the lack until much later, when Dr Sklar of Qualcomm
asked his digital communications theory class at Mitre to calculate
the entropy of an array of possible data bit values.
I learned to find and eliminate the systematic errors until I could
perform and document one accurate measurement that would withstand
cross-examination in court. That's difficult enough in the physical
sciences and maybe impossible for opinion polls since the disgruntled
misfits have tried to demonize traditional societal values they can't
meet and substitute mutable opportunistic ones that benefit themselves
and punish their critics. That discourages rational discussion while
hardening opposition in the voting booth. Pollsters can't understand
why we NH voters are "undecided" until the curtain closes behind us.
Did you notice how fast the clamor for ethnic "Diversity" evaporated
after more-ethnically-diverse Bruno Mars swept the Grammys?
Dissent is "vital to democracy", unless it's dissent against climate
change. Then it's dangerous heresy that the authorities must suppress.
Yep. What year was this? Sounds like 1970, although we did have direct dial
desk phones then.
I think that in practice, the examples of selection bias may have been more
valuable than added math.
The difference is that with imperfect math one may lose a bit of accuracy,
while with selection bias, the whole study can become invalid and thus
Got it. Thanks.
misfits. The world is far more complex than that.
I had not noticed, but I never heard of Bruno Mars either. He does seem to
have a dangerous combination of diversity checkboxes coupled with raw talent.
Yes. And they should be careful what they pray for. The shoe will soon be on
the other foot.
Yes. And they should be careful what they pray for. The shoe will soon
the other foot.
They don't practice what they preach. I never see laundry drying on
clotheslines, or reuseable bags in anyone else's grocery cart. The
clerks tell me I'm the only one who regularly uses them.
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