What is the future of manufacturing?

Aug 04, 2003 146 Replies

Ah, the old free-trade mantra raises its little head. So, you're comparing a skilled moldmaker, who works with 3D CAD and 5-axis high-speed machining centers, with a guy who sharpens knives on the back of a truck?

You sound like Grant Aldonis, Assistant Sec. of Commerce. He thinks our productivity is too low to compete. He apparently didn't read his own department's figures, which show that we have the highest productivity in the world.

As you sit there telling other people what they must do, bg, what is it you suggest? Should they all start becoming middlemen for China?

You don't understand the question. Geographic advantage relates to an advantageous climate or low-cost trans-shipping. In terms of trade with the US, China has neither.

We aren't talking about "most countries." We're talking about the US. Again, no advantage overall.

And your argument is utter nonsense. The US is the most innovative economy in the world. So, your cure for an assault by low-wage mercantilism is to do something that you can't think of yourself, and that this country already does better than anyone else. That sounds like a self-serving excuse to me, bg, when it's coming from someone who's engaged in foreign trade himself. Your prescription seems to be, "go away, I have mine."

Ooh, more government planning and spending. They're going to take your Junior Libertarian Free-Trade Decoder Ring away from you if you keep talking like that, bg.

enterprises,

You neglect to mention that this is only in a few select cities, and most of the foreign banks' RMB services are only allowed to Chinese businesses, not to the foreigners doing business in China. The phased "liberalization" of foreign banks in China won't be complete until 2007.

Meanwhile, our Fed. Reserve estimates that the non-performing loan (NPL) percentage among major Chinese banks is around 60%. In a competitive marketplace, banks are usually insolvent when their NPL goes above 20%. Their capital-adequacy ratios (CARs) are still far below the international norm of 8%, while they're demanding far higher ratios, well ABOVE the international norm, from foreign banks that want to do business in China. At the same time, they have limited the inter-bank loans from Chinese banks to foreign banks, which is one of their few sources of RMB, assuring that their growth will be limited, and that Chinese banks won't have to compete with them except at that margins, for quite a long time to come. They're barely sticking to the letter of their WTO agreements, but it's obvious they're doing everything they can to hold back the tide.

But China's banks are not in a competitive marketplace. If they were, as I said, they'd have a run and go belly-up before week's end.

Ah, bg, that ship set sail in June of 2002. Maybe your subscription to the People's Daily is running a little behind.

American Automobile Network Holdings Inc. was the remnant of the collapsed Daewoo dealer network in the U.S. All hat, no cattle. No cars, either.

The cars were slated to land in Port Everglades, Fla., but the US government wouldn't allow them to pass through customs because they don't meet US emissions standards. The ship was re-routed to Mexico, and then apparently it was decided they'd land in Port Everglades after all, for trans-shipment to Africa.

They haven't been heard from since. They may have tried to cross the Bermuda Triangle...

There could be a connection, though, with an incident in which the golf carts at the Boca Raton Country Club were replaced in the dead of night by a fleet of funny little hardtops with radios and turn signals, and with tear-off pads of Chinese takeout menus stuffed into the glove boxes. Under the vehicles' insignia, which no one recognizes, are the words "Happy, Happy, Joy, Joy."

Golfers are generally pleased with the new vehicles, although they complain about the lack of air conditioning and a noxious odor coming from their trunks. "It smells like somebody has been living in there for weeks," says Boca Raton police chief Billy-Bob Turkle. "But it can't be, because those trunks are so small you could barely stuff a Chinaman in there."

The mysterious replacement of the golf carts, which turned up in a hand-laundry parking lot near Clearwater, is under investigation. Police report that the carts were missing their batteries and tires.

Yeah, a grand total of 900 luxury Buicks. But I was responding to this statement of yours: "VW, audi, Peugeot, Toyota, Honda and Nissan have all been benefitting greatly. I dont believe all have been exporting full vehicles, but many have." One assumes that the Shanghai VW executive quoted in that article knows where the cars that his company makes are going.

The total passenger car exports from China this year, which are all trial balloons, run to less than 2,000 vehicles, including SUVs, to other parts of Asia, Turkey, Iran, and Africa. The joke is that they're all being bought by Chinese foreign diplomats. That isn't trade. That's cultural exchange.

Yeah, more research. Maybe you can send me your year-old "People's Daily's" so I can find out what happened last year.

Any word on the Xiali ghost ship?

-- Ed Huntress (remove "3" from email address for email reply)

manufacturing

At the end of 1998, the US employment stats looked like this (in thousands):

Manufacturing: 18,587 Retail trade: 22,650

As of the 2nd quarter of 2003, they looked like this:

Manufacturing: 14,741 Retail trade: 14,979

Next question?

Ed Huntress

The irony here, bg, is that you advocate "innovation," and "change or die," for the people in US manufacturing who are having the slats cut out from under them by low wages. But, when I suggest that we need an innovative idea in trade relations, you limit us to the solutions from the past, and suggest that it will take a century or two to come up with something new.

What's wrong with this picture?

-- Ed Huntress (remove "3" from email address for email reply)

statistics.

You're doing back-porch economics here, but it's easy to test. If what you're saying was true, it would show up as a decline in GDP per capita. But there was no such decline.

Ed Huntress

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A lot of minimum-wage retail work is discretionary. They may have just decided not to bother.

But getting a real analysis of things like this takes quite a bit of time. I'll defer to someone who's interested in chasing it down.

Ed Huntress

I think those aggregate Labor Dept. figures include part-time workers, but I'm not sure, because I don't spend much time with the aggregates. You can peel them off by looking at the hours/worker figures, which are available from some Labor Dept. tables.

I'm thinking of paying for Stat-USA or one of the other services to make this job easier, but I spent some time with Stat-USA at a county library and I didn't find it much easier than the system I've set up for the free sources of data.

-- Ed Huntress (remove "3" from email address for email reply)

Mmmm. So let me get this straight, in about ten years, we're all gonna be simultaneously employed by wal-mart, and do all our shopping there as well?

Somehow, someplace, there's something wrong with this picture.

Jim

================================================== please reply to: JRR(zero) at yktvmv (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com ==================================================

Sure there was, but you have to calculate it in *constant dollars* to see it. That's the only way you can compare actual purchasing power differences between years.

Gary

Yeah, it is your assumption that Walmart is the only service sector employer. Remember that the number of lawyers is also expanding exponentially.

Gary

This is a joke, right?

Ed Huntress

Ed,

Whats all the huff and puff for?

Look, it would be great to come up with a new economic theory that will fix all the economic disparities in the world today. But its not something that will happen tomorrow. People need solutions near-term. So if that is a given, we need to work within the systems we have available as best we can.

Only in the respect that they reinvented themselves. They were forced to adapt. I have given you cases and examples in our postings of companies that have been forced to do so and have done so successfuly.

I dont believe that at all. I am the one saying that I have confidence in our productivity. You seem to be the one throwing in the towel, not even willing to attempt innovation.

I am suggesting that we need innovation, nothing else. It is conceptual,but some people will become middlemen, some laborers, some engineers, and so on. I believe what we are seeing is a natural state of economics.

Ed, why all the huffnpuff? You did not specify you were looking for climate or low cost shipping. You merely stated geography. And in the general sense of the term, yes, they do have certain advantages. But yes, they dont have anything special over us, geographically.

Correct. But agin, you were not specific.

huffnpuffing.Why?

Innovation is not utter nonsense. Thousands of companies all over the world are planning for it everyday. How many times has IBM reinvented itself? Countless. Yes, we are the most innovative economy in the world. It is our greatest advantage, and have said/alluded so in my previous posts. That is why we should continue to put more effort in this area. How do you relate this to be self serving? It is our countries greatest economic asset!

I am talking about simple things, like instead of that 2 lane road, think big and make a 6 lane road. It is easy for countries like China to do it, because they are starting from ground zero. But we have to think along those lines. Improving roads, ports and other infrastructure. They are the foundation of any working economy.

I admit, I dont always like the free trade deal. It seems that it is never negotiated to perfection. But then I am not confident we will ever see perfection in my lifetime.

Thats true. And they would definitely fall on their faces if forced to float their currency right now. Thats why they are fighting it. But they are on the right track. I watched all the other Asian economies wait until disaster struck. At least they are doing something about it before hand, even though so much more needs to be done.

Ed, all of those mfrs are benefitting greatly. Some of them have plans in the works, now building factories for export purposes. My initial question was in regards to why they have waited so long to buy parts from China. You reply with a quote from a VW exec,which was not exactly correct.

You want to focus on the petty word "many"? Lets get on to solving the worlds problems. What are you picking at this stuff for? I think we're making progress. Its nice to discuss issues like this with someone who has a good background. I learn from it. You dont have to get snappy...

Hey, I just did a quick search. I didnt bother to think that I was reading something out of Laurel And Hardys Ghost Ship short.

bg

But I have *told* everyone what the near-term solutions are going to be. All the executives are starting to act on my proposal as we converse.

Simply fire all the US workers, and move production over to China, where they make exactly the same thing that was being made in the US, for 1/20 of the cost. Import the widgets, and sell them for more profit than before.

Continue until you run out of a) widgets b)folks to make widgets, or c) folks (with money) to buy widgets. For the head of a corporation, this is not only a no-brainer but indeed they would be remiss in their responsibilities to the stockholders if they did *not* do this in its entirety.

Jim

================================================== please reply to: JRR(zero) at yktvmv (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com ==================================================

OK. So we will all be either working for wal-mart or its equivalent, doing all our shopping there, and also moonlighting as lawyers - suing each other.

Somehow this seems like a rather bleak picture.

Jim

================================================== please reply to: JRR(zero) at yktvmv (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com ==================================================

My fallback position is one described by a Rutgers professor a few years ago. He said that getting hit by a car in New Jersey is treated with as much glee as winning the lottery. So I figure that, if I get laid off, I'll be crossing a lot of streets in crowded, low-speed-limit zones.

Ed Huntress

Interesting. That's a 20.69% drop for manufacturing and a 33.86% drop for retail.

I hear in the news all the time how badly manufacturing has been hurt, but it looks like retail is taking a much bigger beating. That looks like it at least somewhat supports the generalization that every manufacturing job supports several retail/service jobs.

Jon

Retail is a volatile employer today, in which wages are very low, professionalism among staff employees is out the window, and relatively few people approach it as a career. Employment in retail probably is more sensitive to the state of the economy than any other type of job. My whole family, BTW, was in retail management, with Sears, Macy's, and the Federated Department Stores group. I'm the only one in my family who never was in it.

The question of how much manufacturing supports service jobs, and how much service jobs support manufacturing, is a very interesting one. I asked a well-known economist about it a few months ago and he acted as if the question had never occurred to him. He thinks in terms of the two rising and falling together. I wish I knew more about it.

-- Ed Huntress (remove "3" from email address for email reply)

Not at all. The issue being discussed is that it now requires the purchasing power of two earners to maintain a comfortable middle class household. The reason for that is obviously inflation, and one of the main contributors to inflation over the period in question was the introduction of the two earner household, which caused both push and pull in the market, which resulted in depreciated wage rates simultaneously with higher prices of household goods and services, as I explained previously. Since inflation is integral to the argument, you have to do the measurement in constant dollars to see the changes in purchasing power from year to year as the number of women in the workforce increased.

Gary

The next question would be (if your figures are correct), where are the missing 11+ million workers now employed?

Since that number handily exceeds the total for unemployed workers (which has actually declined from a peak of 7.4 million in 1995), they must be doing something.

Gary

That's actually not a stupid suggestion. Just ask Archer Daniels Midland about how profitable it can be to be a middleman. Or ask your friends in manufacturing who made the most money, an assembly line worker, or a company commission salesman (manufacturer's rep).

Gary

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