Just finished reading " At Dawn We Slept" ( for the about the third time) by Gordon W. Prange. The book still tells me things every time I read it. My questions is this: If the American forces had had a 30 minute warning that the Japanese were on the way, would it have really changed things that much? I am not refering to the midget sub sunk at the harbor entrance but a confirmed sighting of the combined air fleet from the six carriers? Are there any 'What If ?' newsgroups that have covered this topic? Some how I just don't think it would have. Mike IPMS
I've studied PH over the years, including Prange. I came to the conclusion some time ago that provided a warning of an hour or so the fleet would have been lost in deep water rather than in shallow. If a warning had arrived in sufficient enough time to deploy the fleet the US commanders would have been compelled to join battle. The results would have been similar to what the Royal Navy experienced three days later when they lost the Renown and the Repulse off Malaysia. As for land based US air power, I imagine they would have suffered the same lack of success as their Midway counterparts did 6 months later.
Probably the best outcome would have been to get enough of a warning to have mounted a cohesive air defense with what fighters they had in HI and to have gotten the AA guns fully crewed and served. The Japanese would have paid a steeper cost in air losses and some of their punches might have been deflected. I think the Japanese would have still gotten through. As for counteroffensive operations by the US, I think air and surface attacks on the Japanese fleet would have been mauled.
While PH was psychologically catastrophic, it could have been much worse militarily. Politically it was a victory for advocates of naval air power in the US. The Battleship Admirals were benched. Together with the silent service, superior naval air power was just about the margin of victory where the ambitions of the Imperial Japanese Navy were concerned.
WmB
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I think it took longer than that to build up steam in the big ships. There might have been more men manning AA guns. As to using air power, I think we would have lost less aircraft on the ground at first but probably most of any force attacking the Japanese. In turn, denuding Pearl of any air cover would have upped the losses later.
Part of the reason for our losses there was that 'we' just couldn't imagine that we were being attacked. We very well may have diddled the time away arguing.
That's about what Prange says, and other analysts. The AA guns would be manned and ready, and there would have been more fighters in the air. The first wave met slight resistance; the second wave fought their way in and out; two contested waves would have reduced the US loss and increased the Japanese loss--simply double the total loss, to 58; at that time, the loss of a single naval air group would have crippled Japanese plans. As for the B-18's and the old battleships, they were obsolete anyway, and the casualties on prepared, defended ships, even not underway, would have been much less.
I'd analyze it the same way. The only real question is whether the Japanese would have aborted when they saw us prepared for their attack. Since events like this take on their own momentum, and given the warrior spirit of the Japanese airmen, I don't think they would have aborted, though there might not have been a follow-up attack with Nagumo in charge.
Except for Nevada, I doubt any of the BBs would have been able to raise steam and get to deep water in the time hypothecated. They would have been at general quarters, though, which might have reduced damage and casualties dramatically. And then there's the incalculables--what would have been damaged instead, how would command structure in the U.S. forces have differed in the aftermath, and especially, if the BBs were not neutralized, would we have recognized the primacy of naval air power?
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