I have only recently managed to turn things around. I learned some
hard (and expensive) lessons. The market does not go easy on
I found some information sources worth listening to and paying for. I
saw the storm coming when it was just a cloud on the horizon. My
picnic didn't get rained on; I kept my powder dry; etc. Also stopped
doing things that lost money. Returns are proportional to homework.
The funny thing is, what I learned translates better to a down market
than an up market. The signals are much more discernable and
actionable. I'm not cheering for the downside, just managing as best
as I can. Plant in spring; reap in fall.
all very well but what happens if this is a nuclear winter rather than heavy
there is a global problem now in that people not only have trouble getting
credit but they have stopped spending. as well
what if that live on credit culture that was sponsored from elsewhere, and
was a giant pyramid scheme never returns?
looking beyond your self interest how do you see this situation being
just wondering how it looks from a US perspective...
Nuclear winter? Feh! I'm not going to pass an opportunity to grow my
modest funds because other people feel bad about their buy-and-hold-
and-lose strategy. If everything gets blown away, there's nothing I
can do about it. If the world keeps turning, I will have my gains.
I don't see the situation being resolved by spending (= "stimulus").
We spent our way out of the last recession by borrowing against
artificially inflating assets, especially real estate. Now there's
nowhere left to borrow, no one left to lend.
The crisis was brought about by toxic addiction to risk at all levels,
from consumer to corporate to sovereign. We're in a bad risk
hangover. The poison just needs to work its way through. We can't
spend our way out of this. The world economy will not "snap back".
The problem is world wide. Banks all over the world took excessive
risks in speculative markets. Swiss, Italian and Austrian banks are
overleveraged in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Spain and Britain
had housing booms and busts. China and other countries dependent on
U.S. for exports have no where to sling their plastic dog crap.
What emerges will be different. More prudent banking cultures (e.g.
Germany and Canada) will lead the way and be the model for the rest.
There will be new vehicles for raising capital and extending credit.
On the bright side for the jingoists, the enemies of the U.S. are
suffering more. Saudi Arabia likes to have oil prices just low enough
that Iran suffers and they don't. It also will be interesting to
watch Hugo Chavez try to hold power while his gravy train loses
I have always lived within my means. I do not borrow to finance
entertainment or status. I am grateful to God that I am in a position
to weather the storm.
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