It's likely that more guns have been sold to first-time buyers lately, but the number, in relation to the number of gun owners already out there, probably is a lot smaller than you seem to think.
But what's really wacky is the idea that they're buying up all the ammo. It's probably all gun owners. One interesting comment from a gun store, published somewhere over the last few weeks, is that ammo buyers are asking for one caliber; when they can't get it, they ask for another caliber; some move on to a third or fourth, and when they can't get that, they start asking for shotgun shells.
How many first-time buyers do you think go out and buy three or four guns right off the bat? Those are established gun owners, who have at least several guns.
First, because these offices, among others, have been moved from other agencies to DHS over the past few years:
U.S. Secret Service U.S. Customs Service U.S. Coast Guard Transportation Security Administration Strategic National Stockpile Office for Domestic Preparedness Nuclear Incident Response Team National Infrastructure Protection Center National Domestic Preparedness Office National Biological Warfare Defense Analysis Center Immigration and Naturalization Service Federal Protective Service Federal Law Enforcement Training Center Federal Emergency Management Agency Domestic Emergency Support Teams CBRN Countermeasures Programs
Second, because many thousands of local police departments are now training at DHS centers, including firearms training and ranges.
It probably isn't since it's causing an extreme shortage in the marketplace despite the manufacturers operating three shifts. The forums I follow have plenty of people from around the country and all are reporting the same thing.
I'll also note that the flawed data for the analysis you linked did not originate from Pew, it came from other less reputable sources and is also stale. The key problem that data doesn't address is the fact that a very large percentage of the population does not participate in polls at all and those that do don't provide accurate information.
Of course it's gun owners, the millions of new gun owners who need ammo for their first time gun purchases.
This seems to be the work of some "scalpers" trying to speculate on the market, waiting in line at stores to buy ammo in hopes of reselling it for a profit. They are soon going to find themselves with ammo they have to unload at a loss since the market seems to be starting to normalize again.
Nope, those are the scalpers again. There aren't many of them since most of these scalpers don't have real employment if they can wait in line every morning at the stores and thus most scalpers have been limited to less expensive ammunition rather than actual firearms.
It has also been noted that the scalpers who have been buying $900 ARs at Wal-Mart to try to resell for $1,500 are likely committing felonies since they are not FFLs and they are purchasing for the express purpose of reselling rather than for personal use.
This, plus the fact that Obummer needs to greatly expand DHS and its related departments since that is one of the few options he has left to try to prop up the failing employment numbers now that the seasonal hiring bubble has burst and quantitative easing is having less and less smoke and mirrors effect with each passing month of it.
All of these anecdotes are interesting, but you're engaging in a lot of speculation about who is buying the ammo. That's typical of these discussions. Everybody has a theory, but few have any data to back it up.
So we'll wait and see how it shakes out. From some investment reports, big players are selling gun stocks because they think they're near a peak and it can't be sustained much longer. But they had a nice run.
I think the libby loos are finally grokking that their reign is coming to an end and will be attempting to use the Homeland Security as their SS to keep the unwashed from getting too uppity.
Ultimately nobody has any solid data, and those polls have the least valid data of them all. Most people don't participate in polls to begin with, and those that are security conscious and thus more likely to own firearms are less likely still. The minority gun ownership is underrepresented since many in those communities get their guns through illegal sales simply because they don't know how to buy one legitimately, much like many in those communities have no experience with fine dining (a subject noted on NPR recently due to a project that was educating urban youth so they wouldn't be out of their element at a business lunch).
I peaked with the first Obummer election and then subsided, peaked again with Obummer2 and then subsided, now it peaked again with the renewed attacks by the anti-gun minority and it's showing signs of subsiding again. Each one of those events has significantly expanded gun ownership, making the rabid anti-gunners an even smaller minority.
It's clear you've decided what information is convincing to you, Pete, so there's no point in discussing it further. Once someone dismisses Pew Research as "crap," or swallows the anecdotes and wishful thinking of people with an interest in propagandizing about trends in gun ownership even though it flies in the face of one of the largest, most thorough, and most respected surveys ever done (the General Social Survey), there's no point.
I've been involved in survey research since the '70s, first with TV license-renewal studies, and then for years with marketing research, and I know it's fruitless to talk to people who have their minds made up about top-level poll and survey companies producing "crap."
There has been no Pew research presented, only Pew analysis of the flawed polls conducted by others.
Sorry bud, that GSS survey is simply flawed, which is one reason it doesn't square with other polls.
I'm afraid you're stuck in the mentality that these "social" surveys follow the same rules as those of product / market research, and this assumption is deeply flawed. With product / market research those being polled have no interest in protecting anything private, there are no personal security implications to whether you use dish detergent X or watch TV show Y, and those being polled are often compensated for their time. When you get into "social" research personal security and privacy come into play and the quality of the data you receive declines drastically. Many people simply won't participate at all, especially since "social" research polls usually don't provide compensation, and for those that do participate they will typically provide less than truthful information on anything that should be private.
"The Pew Research Center has tracked gun ownership since 1993, and our surveys largely confirm the General Social Survey trend. In our December 1993 survey, 45% reported having a gun in their household; in early 1994, the GSS found 44% saying they had a gun in their home. A January 2013 Pew Research Center survey found 33% saying they had a gun, rifle or pistol in their home, as did 34% in the 2012 wave of the General Social Survey."
Next time, read it before expounding your conclusions, Ok?
See above. It squares quite nicely with Pew's studies. And if you know how the GSS is seriously "flawed," you can become famous.
Bad guesswork on your part. Studies like the GSS pre-test and post-test six ways to Sunday. They've thought of, and tested and corrected for, potential biases that you haven't even considered.
And you run into situations like this: Pro-gun people who talk before thinking, or who talk before studying, constantly cite the Kleck study on defensive uses of a gun. For God's sake, that's a self-reported survey with no pre-test checks, and Kleck estimates up to 2.5 million defensive uses. It's interesting that his estimates for burglary defenses work out to more than 100% of the burglaries committed with a homeowner in the house , but aside from that, what better evidence do you need that people are MORE than willing to brag about having a gun at home? Some of them claimed they've used their guns in defense of their home dozens of times...
So your comment about my "assumptions" being "deeply flawed" are taken with a large grain of salt. I'm not making assumptions. I've actually done the work, both academically and in actual field studies, for marketing clients and for others who were satisfying government (FCC) requirements.
I think the libby loos are finally grokking that their reign is coming to an end and will be attempting to use the Homeland Security as their SS to keep the unwashed from getting too uppity.
gun wad. the wadding is molded. 96 cavities, 9 second shot, 24/7/365 One ready to bolt to the press in less than 10 minutes if production stops. rows of these things man. Who the hell is shooting all those shotgun shells? Gator hunters?
Ed, How you be so very SURE of these surveys... If oyu haven't physically went to a local sportng store, gun store, etc.. And actually asked them, if THEY are getting in all this ammo?
You seem convinced that ALL of it is getting snatched up by hoarders. No outlet that I can find is getting in ANY significant amount.
They cannot get it! Go, ask, find out first person.
Your sacred research report is pointless, if it doesn't reflect physical realty, but only represents the party line point of view.
Most sectors of the country, the shops are NOT getting it in. No one can be hoarding it if it is NOT available.
Tell us what YOU find out locally, not what your researchers tell you to believe.
local sportng store, gun store, etc.. And actually asked them, if THEY are getting in all this ammo?
I've called every gun shop within about 40 miles, and they aren't getting the ammo they usually get. But when they do, people are lined up to buy it, they say. They are hoarding, as several gun shops who know their customers personally have confirmed.
Now, THAT's anecdotal information, too. I haven't seen any studies about it. And the production manager I talked to at Remington said she doesn't know what's blocking any of it at retail. She says they're shipping more to their wholesalers than ever before. She did speculate that the wholesalers are rationing it to their retailers, but she didn't know for sure.
I have talked to Dick's Sporting Goods since then, and all they can tell me is that they get a shipment in on Friday morning and it's gone before noon. They're the biggest gun and ammo dealer in my immediate area and they should know, nationwide, what's happening. But I haven't reached the right people. As a member of the press I've contacted their press-relations people and I'm waiting to see if they'll get back to me with an answer.
If I hear anything on-the-record, I'll let you know.
PolyTech Forum website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here.
All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.