George and Steel Tarifs

I stopped by my steel supplier today to pick up a couple of things and jokingly asked the owner if the price would be coming down with the lifting of the tarrif. His opinion was they may dip slightly but overall would increase quite a bit over the next year.

Seems the Ch> FYI:

Economists around the world are saying that steel prices are in for an increase, partly because of the Chinese consumption and partly because manufacturing is ticking-up in general.

As for the US producers crying wolf, that depends on how you look at it. They were going broke; the big ones were all on the block last year, but with few interested buyers. Why that happens to be can take a while to answer. There are several big factors, some of which are within their control and some of which aren't.

Ed Huntress

My guess is the Chinese are buying up scrap to create a shortage. It's easier/ cheaper to make steel from scrap. I think that would drive US manufacturers cost higher making the US even less competitive.

OTOH, Dubya could always seize Chinese assets.

In a paper to delegates attending a Metal Bulletin (LSE: MTLB.L - news) ferro-alloys conference, Jim Lennon from Macquarie Bank said prices could push up to levels last seen 15 years ago.

"Prices will have to rise sharply -- and may stay high for a long time," he said.

China would play the dominant role in nickel prices because of the strong pace of its demand, particularly in stainless steel production, he said.

In global terms, Chinese consumption accounts for more than 21 percent of a total 1.242 million tonnes.

Stainless steel production accounts for two-thirds of nickel consumption.

Vicki Roche, a scrap buyer for steelmaker Gerdau AmeriSteel Corp., Tampa, Fla., said she has seen scrap prices averaging about $3 per ton higher thus far in September. She noted that offshore demand for ferrous scrap is likely to continue and that pig iron out of Brazil is sold out through January of 2004, causing further demand strain on the market.

According to Roche, though, some of the other ?perfect storm? factors that drove scrap prices up are alleviating. She noted that the labor situation that restricted DRI production in Venezuela has eased and that the Russian 30-euros tax on exported scrap could be lifted sometime soon.

Industry analyst Marcus, though, believes there are still overall supply constraints that, coupled with a booming Chinese steel industry, will make for a lack of steel furnace feedstock relative to global demand.

Marcus said that even though much of the new Chinese capacity consists of blast furnaces, a shortage of iron ore capacity will cause buyers at these mills to seek more scrap from an obsolete scrap reservoir that is already straining to feed the world?s electric arc furnace (EAF) mills.

That shortage is already showing this year, by Marcus? calculations, with a theoretical shortfall of 36 million metric tons of obsolete scrap in the market in his ?most likely? scenario, followed by shortages of 40 million metric tons next year, 45 million metric tons in 2005 and 50 million tons by 2010.

Chow mein noodles could be as dangerous as pretzels.

Best regards, Spehro Pefhany

What assets? Unlike the Japanese who lost much of their forign exchange surplus in US real estate investments like Pebble Beach, the chinese are taking their dollars and spending it on infrastructure and buildings.

From what my steel dealer says the Chinese are driving scrap up prices indirectly because they are buying a lot of finished structural steel and the exporting producers are scrambling for scrap.

Just wait until they start turning that steel into cars. Then we will be competing against them for gasoline.

An interesting thought, but the US has a big advantage in the secondary steel (scrap remelted in mini-mills) business. The Chinese are bigger in primary steel -- steel made from ore.

Ed Huntress

Pipe up again, when he isnt.

You always take down the little guys and the second in command t ypes, as they have a lot to loose, will rat out the big fish, and always know where the bodies are buried.

Gunner

The methodology of the left has always been:

1. Lie
2. Repeat the lie as many times as possible
3. Have as many people repeat the lie as often as possible
4. Eventually, the uninformed believe the lie
5. The lie will then be made into some form oflaw
6. Then everyone must conform to the lie

When you post their lies, we will talk about them. Though it should be pointed out, that any statement that disagrees with your mindset, (such as it is) may not be a lie.

Gunner

The methodology of the left has always been:

1. Lie
2. Repeat the lie as many times as possible
3. Have as many people repeat the lie as often as possible
4. Eventually, the uninformed believe the lie
5. The lie will then be made into some form oflaw
6. Then everyone must conform to the lie

And I love your denial.. which btw..is not a river in Egypt.

laugh laugh laugh

Gunner

The methodology of the left has always been:

1. Lie
2. Repeat the lie as many times as possible
3. Have as many people repeat the lie as often as possible
4. Eventually, the uninformed believe the lie
5. The lie will then be made into some form oflaw
6. Then everyone must conform to the lie

What? Kenneth Lay is incarcerated? Where?

Jim

================================================== please reply to: JRR(zero) at yktvmv (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com ==================================================

It's happened in the rest of the world, why not in the US as well?

Mark Rand RTFM

Because we didn't start out with state-owned steel companies with state-supported pensions and health care, and the kind of consolidation the European and Japanese steel companies have indulged in would have violated the Sherman Anti-Trust Act until recent years, and landed some steel execs in deep doo-doo.

Ed Huntress

Actually..it sounds like what the Media said Bush said. Quite a different thing actually.

Gunner

"No man shall be debarred the use of arms. The laws that forbid the carrying of arms disarm those only who are neither inclined nor determined to commit crimes. Such laws make things worse for the assaulted and better for the assailants. They ought to be designated as laws not preventative but fearful of crimes, produced by the tumultuous impression of a few isolated facts, and not by thoughtful consideration of the inconveniences and advantages of a universal decree." - Thomas Jefferson

Yo Bro,

The "media" didn't change anything. It's all on tape! What Bush said, he said on TV, for all to hear. Nothing even Karl Rove can about it.

Abrasha

Ok, trot out the cites and the speech, and lets see what he said, ok?

Gunner

No 220-pound thug can threaten the well-being or dignity of a 110-pound woman who has two pounds of iron to even things out. Is that evil? Is that wrong? People who object to weapons aren't abolishing violence, they're begging for the rule of brute force, when the biggest, strongest animals among men were always automatically "right". Guns end that, and social democracy is a hollow farce without an armed populace to make it work. - L. Neil Smith

Hmmm,

Remember the last "State of the Union" address? Please stop showing off your unmitigated ignorance and stupidity. It's an embarrassment to the human race.

Abrasha

You mean this one?

Gunner, jigging the hook..... No 220-pound thug can threaten the well-being or dignity of a 110-pound woman who has two pounds of iron to even things out. Is that evil? Is that wrong? People who object to weapons aren't abolishing violence, they're begging for the rule of brute force, when the biggest, strongest animals among men were always automatically "right". Guns end that, and social democracy is a hollow farce without an armed populace to make it work. - L. Neil Smith

The fab industry doesn't give a damn what happens to the US steel industry, as long as they can get steel from somewhere. The US steel industry doesn't give a damn what happens to the fab industry, as long as there's somebody, like the car manufacturers, who need to buy steel.

All that either of them care about is their own wallets.

Ed Huntress