Duck and Cover: It's the New Survivalism

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>By ALEX WILLIAMS Published: April 6, 2008
>
>THE traditional face of survivalism is that of a shaggy loner in camouflage,

holed up in a cabin in

the wilderness and surrounded by cases of canned goods and ammunition.
>It is not that of Barton M. Biggs, the former chief global strategist at Morgan

Stanley. Yet in Mr.

Biggs's new book, "Wealth, War and Wisdom," he says people should "assume the

possibility of a

breakdown of the civilized infrastructure."
>
>"Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of

food," Mr. Biggs

writes. "It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine,

medicine, clothes, etc.

Think Swiss Family Robinson. Even in America and Europe there could be moments

of riot and rebellion

when law and order temporarily completely breaks down."
>
>Survivalism, it seems, is not just for survivalists anymore.
>Faced with a confluence of diverse threats - a tanking economy, a housing

crisis, looming

environmental disasters, and a sharp spike in oil prices - people who do not

consider themselves

extremists are starting to discuss doomsday measures once associated with the

social fringes.

>They stockpile or grow food in case of a supply breakdown, or buy precious

metals in case of

economic collapse. Some try to take their houses off the electricity grid, or

plan safe houses far

away. The point is not to drop out of society, but to be prepared in case the

future turns out like

something out of "An Inconvenient Truth," if not "Mad Max."
>
>"I'm not a gun-nut, camo-wearing skinhead. I don't even hunt or fish," said

Bill Marcom, 53, a

construction executive in Dallas.
>
>Still, motivated by a belief that the credit crunch and a bursting housing

bubble might spark

widespread economic chaos - "the Greater Depression," as he put it - Mr. Marcom

began to take

measures to prepare for the unknown over the last few years: buying old silver

coins to use as

currency; buying G.P.S. units, a satellite telephone and a hydroponic kit; and

building a simple

cabin in a remote West Texas desert.
>
>"If all these planets line up and things do get really bad," Mr. Marcom said,

"those who have not

prepared will be trapped in the city with thousands of other people needing

food and propane and

everything else."
>
>Interest in survivalism - in either its traditional hard-core version or a

middle-class "lite"

variati>It spikes at times of peril real (the post-Sept. 11 period) or imagined (the

chaos that was supposed

to follow the so-called Y2K computer bug in 2000).
>
>At times, a degree of paranoia is officially sanctioned. In the 1950s, civil

defense authorities

encouraged people to build personal bomb shelters because of the nuclear

threat. In 2003, the

Department of Homeland Security encouraged Americans to stock up on plastic

sheeting and duct tape

to seal windows in case of biological or chemical attacks.
>
>Now, however, the government, while still conducting business under a yellow

terrorism alert, is no

longer taking a lead role in encouraging preparedness. For some, this leaves a vacuum of
>reassurance, and plenty to worry about.
>Esteemed economists debate whether the credit crisis could result in a complete

meltdown of the

financial system. A former vice president of the United States informs us that

global warming could

result in mass flooding, disease and starvation, perhaps even a new Ice Age. >
>"You just can't help wonder if there's a train wreck coming," said David

Anderson, 50, a database

administrator in Colorado Springs who said he was moved by economic

uncertainties and high energy

prices, among other factors, to stockpile months' worth of canned goods in his

basement for his

wife, his two young children and himself.
>
>Popular culture also provides reinforcement, in books like "The Road," Cormac

McCarthy's novel about

a father and son journeying through a post-apocalyptic wasteland, and films

like "I Am Legend,"

which stars Will Smith as a survivor of a man-made virus wandering the barren

streets of New York.

>Middle-class survivalists can also browse among a growing number of how-to

books with titles like

"Dare to Prepare!" a self-published work by Holly Drennan Deyo, or "When All

Hell Breaks Loose" by

Cody Lundin (Gibbs Smith, 2007), which instructs readers how to dispose of

bodies and dine on rats

and dogs in the event of disaster.
>
>Preparedness activity is difficult to track statistically, since people who

take measures are

usually highly circumspect by nature, said Jim Rawles, the editor of

preparedness Web site. Nevertheless, interest in the survivalist movement "is

experiencing its

largest growth since the late 1970s," Mr. Rawles said in an e-mail, adding that

traffic at his blog

has more than doubled in the past 11 months, with more than 67,000 unique

visitors per week. And its

base is growing.
>
>"Our core readership is still solidly conservative," he said. "But in recent

months I've noticed an

increasing number of stridently green and left-of-center readers."
>One left-of-center environmentalist who is taking action is Alex Steffen, the

executive editor of

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a Web site devoted to sustainability. With only slight

irony, Mr. Steffen,

40, said he and his girlfriend could serve as "poster children for the

well-adjusted, urban liberal

survivalist," given that they keep a six-week cache of food and supplies in his

basement in Seattle

(although they polished off their bottle of doomsday whiskey at a party).
>He said the chaos following Hurricane Katrina served as a wake-up call for him

and others that the

government might not be able to protect them in an emergency or environmental crisis.
>
>"The 'where do we land when climate change gets crazy?' question seems to be an

increasingly common

one," said Mr. Steffen in an e-mail message, adding that such questions have

"really gone

mainstream."
>
>Many of the new, nontraditional preparedness converts are "Peakniks," Mr.

Rawles said, referring to

adherents of the "Peak Oil" theory. This concept holds that the world will

soon, or has already,

reached a peak in oil production, and that coming supply shortages might

threaten society. While the

theory is still disputed by many industry analysts and executives, it has

inched toward the

mainstream in the last two years, as oil prices have nearly doubled, surpassing

$100 a barrel. The

topic, which was the subject of a United States Department of Energy report in

attention in publications like The New York Times Magazine and The Wall Street

Journal, and was a

primary focus of "Megadisasters: Oil Apocalypse," a recent History Channel special.
>
>Another book, "The Long Emergency" (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005), by James

Howard Kunstler, an

author and journalist who writes about economic and environmental issues,

argues that American

suburbs and cities may soon lay desolate as people, starved of oil, are forced

back to the land to

adopt a hardscrabble, 19th-century-style agrarian life.
>
>Such fears caused Joyce Jimerson of Bellingham, Wash., a coordinator for a

recycling-composting

program affiliated with Washington State University, to make her yard an

"edible garden," with fruit

trees and vegetables, in case supplies are threatened by oil shortages, climate

change or economic

collapse. "It's all the same ball of wax, as far as I'm concerned," she said.
>Scott Troyer, an energy consultant in Sunnyvale, Calif., said he was spurred by

discussions of peak

oil - "it's not a theory," he said - and other energy concerns to remake his

suburban house in

anticipation of a petroleum-starved future. Mr. Troyer, 57, installed a

photovoltaic electricity

system, a pellet stove and a "cool roof" to reflect the sun's rays, among other measures.
>
>Mr. Troyer remains cautiously optimistic that Americans can wean themselves

from oil through smart

engineering and careful planning. But, he said, "the doomsday scenarios will

happen if people don't

prepare."
>
>Some middle-class preparedness converts, like Val Vontourne, a musician and

paralegal in Olympia,

Wash., recoil at the term "survivalist," even as they stock their homes with

food, gasoline and

water.
>
>"I think of survivalists as being an extreme case of preparedness," said Ms.

Vontourne, 44, "people

who stockpile guns and weapons, anticipating extreme aggression. Whereas what

I'm doing, I think of

as something responsible people do.
>
>"I now think of storing extra food, water, medicine and gasoline in the same

way I think of buying

health insurance and putting money in my 401k," she said. "It just makes sense." >
>Jan Rasmussen
>

"Pax Americana is a philosophy. Hardly an empire. Making sure other people play nice and dont kill each other (and us) off in job lots is hardly empire building, particularly when you give them self determination under "play nice" rules.

Think of it as having your older brother knock the s*it out of you for torturing the cat." Gunner