I need help computing the yield base for my apple orchard to report to the county F.S.A. office... This is normally done by averaging your reported yields for the last five years.
They (this is part of the US government) have decreed that the yield base shall increase by 10% per year for apple trees from 2 to 12 years old and then remain constant. All trees under 2 shall have no yield base.
OK, in math terms for trees in this age bracket. Y = mX + b Y is production year. X is actual production. The above paragraph had decided m =
1.1
Now I need to solve for b using actual production data for the last five years. How?
The equation is a straight line form. m is the slope. From the government description there is an increase of 10% per year so the slope is 1.1 and X has to be the year. Y would be the yield in that year.
I think what you need to find is b, which would be the theoretical yield in the zeroth year that would make the slope over the 2-to-12 year actual production best fit what the govt wants.
So if you only look at one year in the 2nd year where the equation starts, say you are looking at Y = 100 bushels in the first year of this equation (the second year of the tree) then b = 100 - (1.1 * 2) = 97.8.
If you are looking at several years of data, from the 2 yr tree age to something less than or equal to 12 years, then the problem becomes...
Take the Y = yield data and do a best fit to find b over the period where X = 2 to the year
yes, this is what I'm trying to do. The actual data is all over the map. I was planning on setting this year as the zero year if I can find the formula to fit data to a line where the slope (m) is already known.
Plug it into an excel (or equiv) spreadsheet - 2 columns Year Production 2006 600 2005 550 2004 500 2003 450 2002 400 2001 350
menu select TOOLS - Add Ins - Analysis Toolpack menu select Tools - Data Analysis - Regression choose your input rages for Y (year) and X (production) check off "line fit plot" and "new worksheet"
You will get a confusing set of numbers under SUMMARY OUTPUT. All you need is the section: Coefficients Intercept -99700 X Variable 1 50
Your equation is Y = 50*X - 99700
for this data set
"Karl Townsend" wrote in message news:lkG4h.4426$ snipped-for-privacy@newsread4.news.pas.earthlink.net...
This is standard regression analysis software. It solved a best fit for both slope and intercept. I need to specify the slope, not exactly what I need.
Strictly speaking, no it doesn't. An increase of 10% per year is an exponential increase, like compound interest, rather than a linear function.
I'm not sure I understand the mathematical problem, from your description. I assume you're starting with the following data:
Total Production, for each of 5 years Age Distribution of your trees, this year
I assume you are commanded to figure out a "yield base" that averages out year-to-year fluctuations, but does take into account the year-to-year increase in the age of your trees. Is that about right?
Wow! I can see this turning into a useful (Not!) statistic, if they really want each farmer to do the actual calculations, rather than just reporting tree count and yeild numbers.
Has anyone figured out how to tell the trees what their government requires from them? :-)
Sorry, Karl, I know this is not a help.
Well, OK, maybe it'll get you to crack a smile, anyway.
Would it be worthwhile to have a xls spreadsheet [will also run on the free openoffice spreadsheet program] where all you have to do is enter the number of trees for each age group?
Do you maintain production data for each tree?
Unka' George (George McDuffee) .............................. Only in Britain could it be thought a defect to be "too clever by half." The probability is that too many people are too stupid by three-quarters.
John Major (b. 1943), British Conservative politician, prime minister. Quoted in: Observer (London, 7 July 1991).
I think your equation is inconsistent, saying a year is a function of
1.1 * production plus a constant. I think you want something that gives an adjusted yield from actual yield and years since that yield was achieved.
I think it'd be easier to do like this:
Call Yn total production for year n. Call the first year in the series Y0.
For each year n (n varying from 0 to 4, 0 being most recent, let Kn = N (2_to_12) / N total, the fraction of your trees that are in the age bracket 2 to 12 that year.
Adjusted yield for year n is Yan = Yn * ( (1-Kn) + Kn * (1.1 ^n) ). Average adjusted yield is the average of the 5 Yan's. This makes expected production of a young tree 10% more than its previous year's production, rather than an arithmetic progression of 10% of base year for each ensuing year. It's consistent with the definition, will result in a higher average base yield.
This is a classic "How many mathematicians does it take to change a light bulb?".
You guys are making it WAY to complicated.
Just take the number of apples harvested this year from trees older than 2 and younger than 12 and multiply by 1.1. That is (mX) Then add the number of apples harvested from trees older than 12. ("b" for base production).
At least that's the way we are calculating peaches down here except that m is 1.2 for trees under 8. (Pecans are a little more complicated.)
I have an insurance claim. The insurance is government sponsored. Its kind of like doing your income taxes for IRS. I have no clue how to do it, if I do it wrong, my claim will be reduced.
This is what I need to do, I guess. I've got over 6000 trees planted all different years. I need to hire somebody.
I don't see how to do this for each of the last five years. I can't be the first fella faced with this. I see apples, citrus, peaches, almonds, pecans all have similar rules.
Yes, this is the entire plan of the "government". It is to employ all the unemployed doing inane calculations and submitting inane reports that no one ever looks at, except to make damn sure they are submitted on time.
Not to change the subject, but I live in Missouri, and have a part-time, one-man manufacturing business. I sell electronic boards all over the world. I had never sold anything to any entity in Indiana. Then, I got an order from Indiana University, and they told me I needed to file an application with the Indiana Business Tax Bureau. It costs $25, which seems exorbitant, but I did it. They sent me a raft of intrusive paperwork, which made no allowance for a business operating outside their state. All the paperwork seemed to indicate that they wanted their sales tax cut of everything I sold, anywhere. So, I refuesd to fill out the paperwork. Finally, they sent me a bill for $124,000, and stated they would start legal action soon. They had been piling on sales tax liability at the rate of $7000 a month since I applied! Do you know HOW MUCH I would have to be raking in to be liable for $7000 a MONTH in sales tax? They just MADE IT UP!
Missouri now has me on ANNUAL filing of very simple documents. But this OTHER state has me on monthly filing, even though I have never, in 20 years, had a taxable sale in their state!
If I had to do this for all 50 states, it would cost my tiny business $40,000 or something to hire a full-time accountant! The paperwork would actually EXCEED the work done by the business!
(Rant mode off.)
What happens if your trees don't keep up the 10% growth? Is there a special tax penalty for non-compliant trees? How about the accounting office for maintenance of tree production data? I can just see the droves of apple counters with clipboards moving slowly through the orchard, verifying the correct tree ID with GPS equipment.
========== This is exactly what is being imposed on the people that raise livestock, complete with RFID tags for each animal. (I don't know about the chickens.)
see
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What is it about the "informal economy" or "black market" these doofuses don't understand?
And this under a "pro business" Republican administration....
Unka' George (George McDuffee) .............................. Only in Britain could it be thought a defect to be "too clever by half." The probability is that too many people are too stupid by three-quarters.
John Major (b. 1943), British Conservative politician, prime minister. Quoted in: Observer (London, 7 July 1991).
I want to thank everybody for their contributions here. I mulled all this over in my sleep. I woke up with a start at 05:00. Had the answer on how to do it. Took me an hour to lay it out nicely in Excel for one tree variety. (only 29 more to go)
I had thought on this for days and was jammed. Your contribution was the key.
What FSA form # are you filling out? I haven't seen the one for this year. I am not so sure I like that formula. I have a few trees just starting to produce but the majority are getting a bit long in the tooth so I expect my yield to go down a little next year. That formula doesn't seem to do anything but increase.
Started with OMB 0560-0175, NAP ACTUAL PRODUCTION HISTORY AND APPROVED YIELD RECORD. My problems were with NAP (Rev. 1) Amend. 1 paragraph 307, section F - Apples, on page 5-129
I have another appointment Monday to fill out a crop disaster claim, don't know the form number for that. Then on to approval by the county committee.
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