My feeling is that we can't. But I'm going on all second-hand information and analysis. Overall, my fear is that the layoffs or firings would be enough to push us over the brink into a deflationary spiral, which most experts agree would require years of recovery -- or an extremely expensive, revolutionary government program that we'd be paying off for decades.
Either way, it isn't pretty. Deflationary spirals tend to last for close to ten years. And growing the economy with a multi-trillion-dollar national debt hanging over us would succeed only if the economy is generally healthy so that the debt service doesn't drive us down in another spiral.
From an economics point of view, I think a bailout is less expensive and a lot less risky.
Well if the 1836 Treaty of Washingon court case is ruled on the side of the tribes, they will have their hand in my pocket. I might have to pay them to take water out of my well.
When the Indians had arrows not a problem, when they got guns, still not a problem, now they have casino's and lawyers. That is a problem ;)
We found the solution in NJ. We chased them all the way to Oklahoma (Lenee Lenape tribe). Now there are only 50 of them left, and they're smart enough not to want NJ back.
Usually, the political leadership will just start a world war to get things going again. National debts can then have their terms "rearranged" by the victors i.e., we won't pay you a dime because you started it. Dave
The one I want to know about is Wagoner. Jeez, for a guy with such impressive credentials, he sounds to me like a tier-two PR man. I was appalled listening to him.
I guess he's better at running a company. Or he was...
I don't think it was the Lenapes who wanted to protect the black bear.
The bear hunting battle has gone back and forth here for 30 years. Hunting bears was shut down here on procedural grounds (fish & game procedures weren't being followed in setting seasons and so on), but the state senate introduced a bill a month ago to normalize it and to reinstate bear hunts.
Do you know Taleb's "The Black Swan" and the story of the turkey Ed?
Every day for one thousand days a butcher feeds a turkey. The turkey steadily and predictable continues to get fatter and fatter. Every day conveys with increasing confidence to the turkey, the turkeys economic department, risk management department, and the turkey ratings analysts that the butcher LOVES turkeys. Every metric supports that conclusion. On the day when the turkey, the turkeys economic department, risk management department, and the turkey ratings analysts confidence is at its maximum, they all get a big surprise. It's no surprise to you or I but since all of the turkey metrics indicated that the butcher LOVES turkeys, it's a surprise to the others and an example of the propensity of unexpected events - "Black Swans" - to intervene on decision making based exclusively on metrics.
Rick Waggoner is the turkey. Ben Bernanke is the turkey. In fact, the worlds bankers are the turkey. They were all fooled by the illusion of stability. Every one. Read Bernanke's paper that describes what he called "the Great Moderation". He is exactly the turkey.
Real easy. The entire liability was fully funded by the issuance/transfer of what is known as an alphabet soup equity. GME. Another "turkey" example if you will. LOL
The cost will be the same either way George. I'm snipping the rest of your post but not disrespectfully. Putting a few billion dollars into the big three as a stop gap might make this Chrismas season and the period between administrations a bit more tolerable but given the ongoing wave of retrenchment in the other sectors of the economy, one boogie man will just be replaced by another, and immediately.
What the world must do is find a way to deleverage the financial system more effectively than what is happening at present. Every time the DOW makes a run, hedge funds, banks and investment banks sell inventory until the gain is cancelled out and the sell off stops.This is happening way to slowly and without any intelligence. Not only are markets not self regulating - they are completely stupid.
We must also rig the system, if you will, to insure that the cycle of privatizing gain and publicly funded losses is permanently broken to the extent possible. Banks absolutely have got to get out of the risk business beyond a certain very low level. Investment banks and Hedge funds must be seperated from banks and the attendant reserves and cash flows. Let them take the risks as private or publicly traded entities but with the full understanding that they will bear every bit of the risk. The public sector won't, under any circumstances, step in and clean up the mess of a big loss.
We have been on this hobby horse in a big way since Reagan and it has got to come to a halt. Sooner, in this instance, is better.
Furthermore, people have to go back to making their money based on what they do, not the debt or equity positions they can manipulate for financial gain or speculative increases in the value of property. Doctors must return to the practice of medecine, Dentists to dentistry and teachers to teaching
I've said it before and will repeat again that had Reagan allowed the S&L crisis settle itself with a huge prat fall we wouldn't be where we are today. You seem to be suggesting that we repeat that mistake and in the face of the obvious result didn't work.
It's time to move forward to Capitalism 2.0. V1 is as dead as a door nail.
----------------- In the short[est] term you are probably correct.
The problem is this fixes none of the underlying problems and Detroit [and all the rest of the corporations in line with their tin cups] will be back in 6 months to a year for another "rescue." Indeed, this type of "economic crank," while it would provide a momentary euphoria, would make the problems worse in that it continues, even amplifies, "business as usual."
It now appears that some short term assistance will be provided to Detroit, ==>but this fixes nothing,
Lots of lip service was paid to "the stock holders," but that's is all they got. [other than the shaft]
Look at what the IPOs for all this paper were and look at the current prices,espically the banks and brokerages. The stockholders have taken a haircut down to their toenails.
[e.g. GM stock currently $3.75-4.55]
formatting link
But after GM shares dropped earlier this week to ==>a 50-year low,
On Thu, 4 Dec 2008 16:18:46 -0800 (PST), oldjag wrote:
--------------- Just ran across this article
-------------- LONDON, Dec. 6 (UPI) -- Vauxhall Motors, a British subsidiary of General Motors (NYSE:GM), has held secret talks with government officials as it seeks to save thousands of jobs, sources said.
The Times of London reported Saturday that the English automaker approached Business Secretary Peter Mandelson for financial help as its U.S. parent company faces potential collapse.
Follow-up meetings with Mandelson are believed to have also involved representatives from other car manufacturers with British plants, including Ford and Honda.
The newspaper said Vauxhall's move marks the first time a company outside the financial services sector has sought government aid since the global credit crisis began more than a year ago.
Although Vauxhall employs about 5,000 workers in Britain, but there are estimates the company's collapse would affect 50,000 workers employed by part suppliers, car dealerships and local businesses.
The Times said European Union rules normally preclude state aid to car manufacturers, but EU officials are under pressure to prevent the loss of jobs during the current recession.
-------------- for complete article click on
formatting link
also see
-------------
18 November 2008 German federal and state governments are working on a $2.6 billion (two billion euro) bailout package for ailing carmker Opel, a subsidiary of General Motors Corporation of the US. Opel sought government help after its management was left with no cash to run the company.
Germany, which is confirmed to be in a recession, said it wants to help Opal, General Motors' struggling German subsidiary, but the aid will be limited to the German company and the government wants to make sure it does not percolate over to Opel's US parent or lead to demands for support from other companies.
----------- for complete article see
formatting link
and this little morale builder
---------- Chinese Automakers may buy GM and Chrysler by Bertel Schmitt
Chinese carmakers SAIC and Dongfeng have plans to acquire GM and Chrysler, China?s 21st Century Business Herald reports. A National Enquirer the paper is not. It is one of China's leading business newspapers, with a daily readership over three million]. This newspaper cites a senior official of China?s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology? the state regulator of China?s auto industry? who dropped the hint that ?the auto manufacturing giants in China, such as Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, have the capability and intention to buy some assets of the two crisis-plagued American automakers.? These hints are very often followed with quick action in the Middle Kingdom. The hints were dropped just a few days after the same Chinese government gave its auto makers the go-ahead to invest abroad. And why would they do that? A take-over of a large overseas auto maker would fit perfectly into China?s plans. As reported before, China has realized that its export chances are slim without unfettered access to foreign technology. The brand cachet of Chinese cars abroad is, shall we say, challenged. The Chinese could easily export Made-in-China VWs, Toyotas, Buicks. If their joint venture partner would let them. The solution: Buy the joint venture partner. Especially, when he?s in deep trouble. At current market valuations (GM is worth less than Mattel) the Chinese government can afford to buy GM with petty cash. Even a hundred billion $ would barely dent China?s more than $2t in currency reserves. For nobody in the world would buying GM and (while they are at it) Chrysler make more sense than for the Chinese. Overlap? What overlap? They would gain instant access to the world?s markets with accepted brands, and proven technology. The editors of 21st Century Business Herald, obviously with input from higher-up, writes that Chinese industry must change and upgrade. China wants their factories to change from low-value-added manufacturing to technically innovative and financially-sound high-value-add industries. Says the paper: ?It would be much easier now for strong Chinese automakers to go global by acquiring some assets of their U.S. counterparts in times of crisis.?
-------- for complete article click on
formatting link
Unka' George [George McDuffee]
------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end?
Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).
PolyTech Forum website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here.
All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.