Various polls on and off-line have indicated that people do want new RTR models of these particular locomotives (and the Blue Pullman for that matter). Various resin and brass body kits already exist which indicates a demand for these prototypes.
As yet no poll I've read has indicated any sort of demand for a Class 58 nor is there a brass or resin kit from any independent supplier as far as I know. If there is insufficient demand to support a kit built alternative, there is unlikely to be sufficient demand to support a high spec RTR model.
Tricky question, there's probably a CAD drawing to be made of each part and a milling machine and a die block and ... The cost is whatever the company decides it should charge for the service, only a very small part of that would be materials.
Don't say that over on DEMOD. Such a suggestion is equivalent to blasphemy...
Actually, I think you are *partly* right. I'm pretty certain that a price-point of over £100 would deter many. It would sell in significant numbers (depending on the prototype chosen), but perhaps not enough to break even. As I said, it all depends on the prototype and what else is available.
I for one am buying only the recently produced models - not because they are better detailed or more accurate (which they generally are), but because the mechanisms are streats ahead of anything prodiced by Lima or Hornby (50 excepted). [NOTE I'm talking about diesel / electric models here, not steam].
The 58 doesn't fit my layout in geographic terms (North West c1980), so I'll never buy the Hornby one. I bought a Hornby 86 because it's fits my area/era. I'd much rather have it with a proper mech, but I'll make -do for now. If a good 58 model appeared, I'd be tempted, even at 90 quid, in the same way as I bought a Bach Deltic and Hornby 50 and I'll buy the new 31 too - none is strictly applicable to my layout but what-the-heck...
I agree that the 58 isn't a prototype which has universal appeal like the
I'd guess it would sell in similar numbers to the Hymek, except there are at least more than two liveries to depict.
Another angle to this has just occurred to me which seems to make such a project less likely...
If Heljan took on the 58, it would presumably drain development time away from other projects. Faced with the choice of expending time on a 58, where a model is already available (albeit a ropey one), or knocking out a 26 / 27 or 33, I know which I'd go for. The 33 is still around today, and there isn't a currently available model... If it were my company, I'd be doing that first, not the 58 - 1000 sales guaranteed or not...
"Urban myth" eh? Now where have I heard that before?
For the record, it's not an "urban myth", it's an opinion, which may or may not be right. Just because Steve Jones says that, doesn't make it true even if he does threaten to remove people from DEMOD for disagreeing with him. An urban myth is an untruth given creadance by repetition rather than an opinion held by many people based on their knowledge of their *own* buying habits and that of people they know. I have personally spoken to a retailer (not a regular here) who is firmly of the opinion that they would have sold considerably fewer class 40s if they had been priced at £100 rather than the £55 at which he has sold-out his allocation already.
Also, the 50 sells about £80 (or less) and the 47 at £85 ish at most places. Both can be found cheaper if you are prepared to go mail-order. That's at least 15% / 20% below the quoted £100 figure.
around the 100 GBP mark for an RTR locomotive...
No one on any of the forums has suggested that a £100 model wouldn't sell. Of course it would. It's typical of certain sections of the modelling fraternity to distort a logical and commonly held view and depict it as "urban myth" by modifying it to it's illogical extreme.
Many would buy a £100 model, but that doesn't mean that a manufacturer would make a better profit at that price-point. At the other end of the scale, many (I'd suggest more) would be put-off by a price-tag of that level, particularly if it was a model they only *fancied* rather than *needed*. Similarly, there would be far fewer multiple purchasers.
It will be interesting to see if the Bachmann 57 leads to a 47. If that happens, I'd be very surprised if Heljan's sales weren't severely dented. Notice I say dented, not wiped out. Of course there IS a market for a high quality model at £100 - just like there is a market for £500 + O-gauge models, but that doesn't mean that the best profit for the manufacturer is at that price level, because it isn't. If the market was bigger than it is, there would be room for a £100 model and a £50 one, but unfortunately it's not. Otherwise, Hornby, Bachmann and Heljan would have bigger ranges and other manufacturers would be trying for a slice of the cake.
Polls only work effectively if the sample polled is very large. As a long-standing retailer I've never been asked by any of the model manufacturers what my customers would buy - surely a pretty cool way of finding these things out.
One thing for sure is that class 81s, Co-Bos or even Blue Pullmans would not figure very high on MY customers *wanted lists* even though I personally wouldn't mind a couple of Metro-Vics.
hmmm, the results of which would depend entirely on who the poll was asking.
Please explain why you think this is the case.
Bear in mind those who aren't confident enough to shell out on a kit, knowing there's a good chance they'll bugger it up; myself included. Therefore I'm more likely to buy RTR than kits, I bet there's plenty of people like me.
High spec RTR? Yes please. My most recent purchase is sitting atop my monitor so I can ogle it. Is it worth £85? I'd say yes. It actually looks like the prototype, not just a passing resemblance. The detailing out the box is superb, paint finish is pretty neat too. Runs beautifully, what more can I ask for.
Agreed. I would love an 81 for my layout, but I doubt that they would sell in anything like the quantity which would be required. Along with many of the less-numerous, geographically limited and short-lived subjects, the 81 and Metrovick are more suited to the kit manufacturers.
Good point, although that doesn't necessarily indicate *sufficient* demand for RTR. The Blue Pullman, 81 and Metrovick all came below the 20, 31, 50,
55 and 40 in polls I saw before they were produced.
However, now these models are all available and classes 52, 57 and 66 are imminent, what will the manufacturers look at next? of the diesels and electrics which survived into the 80s, there's only really classes 33, 26,
27, 81-85, 76, 73, 87 aren't currently available(have I missed anything????). Of course there are various Hornby models which would benefit from a retool and new chassis, as would some ex Lima models. I'd be surprised if Hornby chose to do an 81 rather than do a retooled 86 or 87. Similarly, a 73 and a 33 would probably sell better than a Metrovick.
That's what I'd say at least...
Some polls explicitly exclude currently available models, and there will undoubtably be people out there for whom the Hornby 58 is acceptable. To accurately gauge which would be most popular, any poll would have to offer these as options. Perhaps we should do some research... Does anyone know of an easy way of setting-up a poll on-line? Ideally it should list 20 or so subjects for a new model at a nominal price of say £70 and ask how many of each model we would buy....Any takers???
I care not what that individual nor anyone else calls it. This just happens to be a subject I agree with him on. I assume that given your knowledge of the man and his behaviour, you are a member of said group and would express such an opinion within that forum?
It has also been demonstrated previously that modellers *will* pay for a certain standard of quality. That would make it slightly more than one person's opinion to me. I submit for you the following:
4mm. Hornby's class 50 sales. Regardless of whether you consider 85 quid near to a hundred, it was still upon release near to being the most expensive RTR diesel ever sold in this country. It sold (and continues to sell) extremely well.
2mm. CJM's class 67 diesels. Okay, smaller volumes here but the company has a large backorder and has for each of its "quality" items thus far.
7mm. Tower Model's RTR brass equipment. I realise that 7mm items sell for far more than most other scales but the fact is that higher price, smaller volume goods continue to sell and sell well.
I would also venture to suggest that Bratchell models, JLTRT and others have given an indication that quality and specification sells, despite higher pricings. There is no evidence to suggest that would not translate to a more mass- market model.
Also, prior to Heljan's entry into the market, nobody had paid anything like the price for a 4mm RTR diesel loco (their class 47). Heljan's models are considred to be (sorry to use the Europe/ US comparison again- I really hate to do that) medium- spec. at best. Surely they did some research prior to contemplating producing the most expensive (at the time) RTR diesel in the UK? (Which was also their first UK outline model.) Again, who's to say that an extra 20 or 25 quid's worth of quality wouldn't sell when translated to an RTR model?
Of course they would! People wouldn't buy the class 40 at 100 quid because it isn't *worth* that amount of money. I am talking about quality and specification far in excess of what the Bachmann 40 (or any other current model by that manufacturer) is able to offer. A spec. akin to some of what's available in the US or Europe.
I have just realised that I am now sounding very Jones- like!! :-) Sorry!! I just cannot help but agree with the man on this particular point.
I was referring to the RRP, an example of which Mr. Turner has previously quoted as being far in excess of the "discounted" fares. *Personally*, I don't consider 85 quid far short of a hundred, but that's just me. Quote percentages all you like.
Perhaps my wording was a little misleading. Specifically talking about the BR-blue example, they ordered what they thought they would need for pre-orders and stock, but by yesterday had none on the shelves. Perhaps they just misjudged demand and under-ordered.
I *was* a member, and did express that opinion in a thread which ended with the decree from Mr Jones that such views would result in removal from the group. I decided to leave when several posts, some which included my support of that "urban-myth", dispeared into the ether - as did my post suggesting that the depiction of this USENET group as "a fluffy haven" was inaccurate (the actual comments were from someone else, but were actually quite insulting and subsequently supported by SJ). The actual "urban myth" post from Mr Jones wasn't followed by a single response contra to his position - which had certainly not been the case beforehand. Either several other messages went AWOL as mine did, or those of us who didn't agree were either silenced (moderated), left in disgust, or were too spineless to stand up to such bullying tactics. I stayed subscribed long enough to see if my last message, explaining in polite terms why I was leaving, passed through moderation. It didn't.
You are completely missing the point (s). Firstly, neither of us has any proof of whether the 50 would have sold better or worse as a £50 Bachmann-style model rather than the £80 Hornby. The 50 is also an interesting model to discuss because its characteristic window droop is not reproduced. If you pick a sufficiently popular prototype, and produce a model which is better than anything else on the market (most would say this is true fro the Bachmann 55, 20 and 40), then you will sell lots. Until the day that someone releases a £100 highly detailed model of something which Bachmann produce at £50, we won't know which would sell better, and the market isn't big enough to support many cases like that.
Different market, and a niche market at that. Like saying that a Lexus will sell better than a Ford because a small number of people buy TVRs.
And would you like to hazzard a guess how much more Bachmann make compared with Tower? I am not, and never have denied that there is a market. There is. I just disagree with the assertion that existing manufacturers should be prepared to abandon their current business model in favour of a higher quality, higher-priced product.
In just about every market, you have two (or more) sectors - going back to the car analogy, there is the mass-market sector with more choice of models, then there is the luxury sector with relatively few. The likes of TVR can be likened to Tower. Expensive models for those who can afford them. The rest of us are content with a shiny new Mondeo, Vectra, A4 etc etc..
Again, see above. You are comparing chalk and cheese.
I've already answered this. The 47 is a dead-cert of a seller. Just about any D&E modeller will want one or more, especially when there is no competition (the Hornby and Lima are both ancient and have poor mechanisms). Discounting the toy / trainset end of the market, there is only one choice, the Heljan. However, if Bachmann had produced a 47 rather than the 25 and it had gone head-to-head with Heljan, I seriously doubt whether Heljan would still be involved in the UK market.
That's a cheap shot and I'm sure you know what I meant..The whole debate....sorry "urban myth"... is all about whether we would pay £100 for a better model.
RRPs are irrelevant. The question is and has always been abou what we are willing to *pay*. If we are talking about a model with an RRP of over £100, up to European standards, but sold in the shops at £80 then I agree that they'd sell by the bucket-load - particularly if there is no credible competing model. It's the highstreet price that matters here because that's what we pay. RRPs vary wildly in how they relate to the wholesale price.
And you are entitled to your opinion as I am mine.I just object to having mine characterised as "urban myth" - a phrase employed by Mr Jones in his George Dubya-esque "You are either with us or against us" speech (and now in the DEMOD FAQs).
At the end of the day, we can both quote reasons and examples of why our particular views are correct. The fact is, neither of us can know for certain which of us is right. I could go around describing your view as "idealistic clap-trap" or some such phrase, in an effort to belittle your viewpoint, but that doesn't get us anywhere.Similarly, just because you disagree with me doesn't mean I'll throw a tantrum and refuse to discuss it. as has happened in one particular "discussion group". At least here, we can both air our views and discuss them in an adult manner. Sadly, there seems to be a minority elsewhere who combine elitism and childishness in a way which is divisive and unproductive.
It seems to me that you don't know when you're well off. Here in Australia, we have a limited range of models and apart from Lima who manufactured several local diesels, (one, a GM-EMD that served as a generic model, despite detail differences between the classes of the prototype). We now have two local (Australian) manufacturers (though I use the term loosely as their products are actually produced in China and Hong Kong). One, Powerline, bought out an existing manufacturer who had produced a NSW Branchline diesel and several passenger coaches for the NSW system and then added models of the almost new 3000hp diesels from NSW, Victoria and Sth Australia, which physically similar in appearance were all totally different bodies, the models had excellent body mouldings and awful Lima type mechanisms and ran like dogs. There has been no further NEW models from this manufacturer for at least 10 years, just a rehash of the same old models, now with a newer mechanism, but still pretty awful . And the prices have gone up and up, currently the prices are, for the
3000hp models with single motor bogie AUD198.00 (approx at current exchange rate GBP80.00) and the twin motor bogie version AUD219.00 (approx GBP90.00). A lot of serious modellers replace these mechanisms with either a brass chassis with a central motor and twelve wheel drive (but only electrical pickup on six wheels) or use American Athearn or Proto 2K mechanisms which increases the cost by approx AUD$130-140 (GBP52-56).
However since 1998 there has been a new player, Austrains, who have manufactured six excellent diesel locomotives from three of Australia's States standard gauge railways and two NSW steam locomotives These were originally sold by direct marketing, although in the last twelve months this has now changed. These (diesel) models are all twelve wheel drive, central mounted five pole motor and twelve wheel electrical pickup and run very smoothly. The prices originally in 1998 were AUD150 (GBP60.00) and the latest (released three weeks ago and now sold out) is AUD245 (approx GBP100.00). New releases planned for 2005 (two new models) include etched grills and separate fans amongst other upgrades. I believe that these are made in the same factory that also produces Hornby and Proto 2K.
Two further manufacturers have entered the fray, one announcing a plastic bodied diesel to brass standard for AUD250.00 (GBP100.00), and the other making the world's first plastic bodied 4-8-4 + 4-8-4 garratt, which if ordered and paid for by May 2005 will be AUD695 (GBP280.00), otherwise off the shelf price is AUD845.00 (GBP340.00). They have also announced a model of a two-car DMU which will retail at AUD395.00 (GBP160).
All the above are H0 models.
The point I'm attempting to make is that I don't believe that there is a great deal of difference in disposable income between the U.K. and Australia but models in Australia are vastly more expensive than would appear to be the case in the U.K. and it is only in the last six years or so that we have had an alternative to hand-made brass locomotives (either steam or diesel) and rubbishy Lima.
Its not much use to you now, but if you find yourself in this situation with a YahooGroup again; you can find out if you're moderated by posting via the YahooGroups website. Upon posting your message, it will say that your message will appear shortly if you're OK. If you're moderated it will say something along the lines of 'your message will appear after approval'.
I realise that we are wandering OT somewhat here but there are many people with issues over that particular person. The subject has been well cooked on here in the past.
All I can say is, I sympathise with you. However, I still see the group in question as a valuable source of information from some very knowledgeable and talented modellers. I usually just "lurk and learn" without expressing any opinion that might offend the great one(s). Not right I know but it does ensure that one is still around to enjoy the benefits. I sometimes wish that an alternative forum could be established in a similar but more relaxed vane.
You raise some good points but I am still of a contrary opinion. Looks like I'm next in line for moderation :-)
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