OT-News Flash- April 19th

Apr 20, 2005 51 Replies

Like I said, sentiments color our view of things.

And you're missing the point. If urban guerillas, and farmers in the midwest, and former veterans, and military deserters, and all those other people you mentioned, all got on the same page at the same time, and could actually do even a tiny fraction of the stuff you describe...

Then they wouldn't need to. If that many diverse people ever even came CLOSE to agreeing on anything at all, they'd be the biggest, strongest, most potent voting block this country's ever seen, and they could scrap the government without ever firing a shot. Or, if you really don't believe in the power of voting, then all those people would be a huge, potent, coherent economic force, and could STILL scrap and replace the government without ever firing a shot.

And if they CAN'T all get together and agree about where to spend their money, or how to cast their votes, then they're surely not going to be coordinated or cooperative when it comes to something as difficult and dangerous as armed rebellion. The most they'd accomplish would be localized, periodic spasms of anarchy, with disparate rebel groups spending as much time shooting at each other as they spent shooting at police or federal troops. Take a look at Afghanistan - before the US invasion - for a perfect example of how that works.

Or take a look at any urban area where the "drug lords" seem to have control. Rather than getting together to drive the cops our of their neighborhoods, so they can run things themselves, gang members kill one another, and only occasionally shoot a cop who happens to get in the way. That's anarchy on a pitifully small scale, but it doesn't even come close to effective rebellion.

Of course, there ARE people who like the idea of anarchy, and who harbor deep, unadmitted feelings of self hatred, and hatred for humanity in general, and who like the thought of things going as wrong as possible, just so everybody gets to hurt and bleed. In some minds, that's better than if things go well and smoothly. That's what terrorism is about, in some ways. I suspect it's what drives people like Ted Kaszinski, or Tim McVeigh, or Dillon Kliebold, and others.

But just because those people exist, and sometimes get in a good shot or two, doesn't make them any kind of real or serious threat. Hell, 19 trained fanatics, supported by a substantial and well funded international organization, got in the best shots ever on September 11th of 2001; and that didn't even make a serious dent in the real stability of our country our our government.

And, to get back to your earlier post: There were two main reasons why those rebels at Lexington, Massachusetts didn't just die and disappear into history's trash can. First, they DIDN'T represent just a small band of malcontents. Their sentiments WERE consistent (for one of the VERY few times in history) with a substantial portion (maybe even a real majority) of the entire population of the American colonies. They WERE in a position of power and control that the British simply didn't realize. The fact that those rebels couldn't change their government by voting was the only reason they had to do any shooting at all. Second, those rebels lived in a time when the weapons available to governments and armies were little different from what any civilian could own. Except on the seas, where warships were a special factor, a shooting match between redcoats and rebels was pretty much a fair fight, with the outcome determined more by sheer numbers and determination than by technology or armaments.

BOTH of those reasons stopped working a long, long time ago.

The world changes, Gunner. Sensible people have to change their thoughts, or they find themselves hopelessly outgunned in the struggle to understand and deal with reality.

I'll say this again, just for effect. Sentiments color our viewpoints. If you believe that it's dangerous and foolish for an enemy to hurt or wound you, but to leave you alive so you can fight another day, then what does it mean, really, if rebels only wound an armed government, or if they only inflict localized bits of pain and suffering, without actually crushing the government to death in the very first encounter? I have this cartoonish vision of a military commander, sitting atop a tank, at the head of a column of tanks that have been gathered at the recently reclaimed Presidio. The comander spends a moment looking over his forces. Then he watches helicopters circle in and out of the columns of smoke rising from what used to be Oakland, across the bay. Then he turns to survey the city of San Francisco, spread out like a map in front of him. And when he's done looking around, and it's time to order his troops into action, he says to himself, and to the unseen rebels he's about to destroy, "You kicked us. You bit us. You hurt and bloodied us. But we're still here. And we're NOT in a good mood. You should have used suicide attacks, instead of thinking you could fight us and win. At least if you'd committed suicide, you wouldn't have to see what happens next."

You can dream all you want, Gunner. But rebellion is a much more difficult, much more complex, and much more intricate game than it was a couple centuries ago. In a way, I suspect that's WHY we feel such reverence for those rebels from long ago. They lived in a time when things were simpler, and when a small number of brave people COULD make a difference with only their courage and their muskets. But making a difference today takes much, MUCH more. It's a shame, maybe. But it's still the truth.

KG

Indeed. On the other hand..if the non rebel citizens actively resist the rebels...there is not a chance in hell of the rebels succeeding. Hence one never alienates the people you hide within.

See the article the other day where the Marines heard a firelight and found groups of regular Joe Iraqis hunting down and killing insurgents? The trend is apparently continuing and growing all across Iraq.

The War College and other groups have war gamed such scenarios many many times. For the most part..the Government always loses. Until they removed the firearms from the citizens. Then the Government nearly always wins.

Food for thought.

Gunner

Rule #35 "That which does not kill you, has made a huge tactical error"

More like a rocket launcher with a stock, I suspect. Black powder burns very slowly, compared to modern stuff. The ball accelerated smoothly and gradually down the whole length of the bore, rather than being blasted to velocity by a sudden explosion in the breech. The long barrels on weapons of that type weren't just to steer the projectile in a straight line; but also to give the powder time to explode fully, and to get the projectile up to speed before it left. The recoil was probably more of a push than a punch; and the weight of the weapons made their kick even less dramatic.

KG

Kirk..you missed the point. What if the government goes feral and simply refuses you the right to vote?

All it would take would be a declaration of Martial Law. No elections is one of the first steps. Suppression of dessent. Installation of puppet leaders..IE Zone Administrators. Suspension of Habeus Corpus and so forth. "For the duration of the emergency"

History is full of examples. Im sure you dont have to look far to find them.

Shrug. Lets all pray to which ever deity that one may hold sacred, that we are never faced with the need to find out which view is correct.

Gunner

Rule #35 "That which does not kill you, has made a huge tactical error"

(snips)

In the case given, law enforcement officials didn't "take precautions to protect against "rebels."" They flailed around helplessly for several days (or was it weeks?) without a clue as to how to stop the shootings. A truck driver was most responsible for putting a stop to them. As the previous poster accurately pointed out, make that 50 teams instead of one, and the U.S. society pretty much comes to a halt. And law enforcement officials wouldn't be able stop that, no matter what they did. The only reason it hasn't already happened is that there aren't 100 such motivated people in the U.S.

You have described Fourth Generation Warfare. It's a real bitch.

Get your analogy strait. In 4GW, the enemies don't sacrifice queens. They throw a bunch of pawns at you and, if they're successful, wear you down and defeat you. The interesting twist is that the more convinced you are that they can't do it, the more likely it is that they can.

-- Robert Sturgeon Summum ius summa inuria.

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Is the majority of the iraq citizens "non-rebel?"

One could make a case the invading their country is a good way to alienate the citizens.

Time will tell.

Jim

The notion of technology and arms in historical perspective brings to mind a recent trip I took to Fort Montgomery.

Fort Montgomery was a natural choke point on the Hudson River, where the american forces put a chain across the river to impede british access upstream.

The "grand battery" of the fort overlooked the choke point, and had a good field of fire on any ships trying to get by.

There were about six cannons there, I think the bore was between 6 and 8 inches. The fort itself is *tiny*. I think Gunner's backyard is probably bigger.

There were a few barracks there, some store-rooms, a powder magazine and guardhouse. Most of the foundations are preserved, some have been excavated. But the size of the installation is so small as to be mind-boggling. Apparently most of the soldiers had only part-time enlistments, many did not even live at the fort.

The cannons were apparently the apex of weaponry at the time. That was pretty much it, aside from the soldiers rifles. I think at the time the fort was considered to be a vital strategic defense site.

It's a good thing the british weren't really serious about stopping the rebellion.

Jim

I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show Robert Sturgeon wrote back on Wed, 20 Apr 2005 18:08:21 -0700 in misc.survivalism :

.75 "caliber". I've never fired a 12 gauge with a slug or ball. That might be "fun".

There is no educational value in the second time you get kicked by a mule. Or don't hold a shotgun tight to your shoulder.

tschus pyotr

I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show "Tom Miller" wrote back on Thu, 21 Apr 2005 09:20:23 +1000 in misc.survivalism :

No, those "hand gon" had gone out of fashioned a couple hundred years before, replaced by matchlocks and other new fangled gizmos as the technology advanced. ("Wasn't like this when I was a boy.")

What he's talking about is a Short Land Musket (New Pattern) , one each. Aka the Brown Bess (although it seems that the name was attached after the muskets went out of service in the 1800s.) Introduced in 1768, it was an improvement of the Long Land Musket introduced in 1722. (Imagine if you will, a firearm five or so inches shorter than you. That was the model 1722. The 1768 was four inches shorter, and a lot lighter in weight.)

Properly handled, it has a sustainable rate of fire of about 2 rounds a minute, and the standard load was 38 cartridges. (Because experience had determined that a) after that many rounds the muzzle was so fouled it needed cleaning" and b) you weren't likely to need any more, the battle would be over by then.) "Improperly handled", some units could get off 4 rounds a minute. (Improperly handled means they skip some of the safety steps.) I never managed more than three in a minute, and that was with just blank charges.

Loud, obnoxious, messy (word to the wise: do not fire a musket directly into the wind. Or at least don't breathe till after the smoke clears ... ), full of sound and fury, but no "kick". Comparatively.

Rule 27: "Never be afraid to be the first to resort to violence."

pyotr

I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show Gunner wrote back on Thu, 21 Apr 2005 16:05:26 GMT in rec.crafts.metalworking :

It's a standard bell curve. Five sigmas over from mu are the "active participants", four sigmas over are the active supporters, 3: the passive supporters, and two sigs either side of mu, could care less. The trick is to get the curve to move one sigma in your direction. So that their support falls off, and your's increases. It is a small percentile shift, more than a massive transformation. That is to say, fewer of their active participants want to participate, but they'll still support them, fewer of their active supporters continue to be active, some of their passive support becomes "undecided", while some of the undecided become your passive support, your passive supporters become active, and some of your active supporters become participants. Politics, revolutions, wars, sales campaigns, all follow this basic outline.

The Iraqis know they are now more in control, and are moving on that bell curve to "Iraqi Nationalism", where "at worse", they are indifferent to what the government does, because they know it won't hurt them.

I'm not very hungry, for some reason.

I can war game it in my head. It won't be pretty, it won't be televised, and no matter what the outcome is called, or who 'wins', it won't be the Republic which I was born into. (Not that this is exactly the Republic I was born into, either, but that is a different issue.)

tschus pyotr

Your theory assumes that the scenario has reached a conclusion. This scenario has a time scale of years, not days or months.

Pete C.

Yes indeed. Read the polls that have been done by independant sources.

One could. But it wouldnt be true for them all.

Indeed.

Gunner

Rule #35 "That which does not kill you, has made a huge tactical error"

Once again, I urge you to read "Imperial Hubris." I could lend a copy if desired.

Jim

Ill have to do that someday.

Have you finished "How to Talk to a Liberal (If You Must): The World According to Ann Coulter," yet?

Gunner Rule #35 "That which does not kill you, has made a huge tactical error"

What relevance does that comment have to my comment about your flawed reasoning re: terrorist attacks? You implied that since the US didn't collapse after 911 that there was no threat of that from terrorist attacks. Two attacks does not in any way indicate a conclusion, only a beginning. It's also only a beginning locally since it has been going on for years outside the US. The events in Spain clearly indicate the dangers of an emotionally reactionary population.

Pete C.

Sure! Send it on.

How did you like the Coulter books? And did you get a chance to finally read Unintended Consequences yet? I mentioned you should read that one several times over the last few years.

Gunner

Rule #35 "That which does not kill you, has made a huge tactical error"

More like .72". Slug loads are usually fairly heavy loads - about like a heavy load of bird shot. They have a decent amount of recoil, but not enough to tighten your fillings...

Doesn't everyone know better than that?

-- Robert Sturgeon Summum ius summa inuria.

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I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show Robert Sturgeon wrote back on Fri, 22 Apr 2005 08:27:29 -0700 in misc.survivalism :

In the words of Tommy Smothers "Not Again!"

I'm reminded of my friend and the keltec pistol. First time he'd fired a semi-auto other than a 22. Left his left thumb on top of the grip, and he got a slide bite. Rest of the day, you could watch him take the pistol, get a good grip, and then move that thumb out of the way. One can imagine the mental checklist: "Good grip, sight picture, left thumb out of way, sight picture, squeeze, squeeze ..."

tschus pyotr

Your reasoning is apparently nonexistent.

Don't know where AQ&CO plan to attack next although I suspect that Mexico is at the bottom of their list. Canada is not out of the realm of possibility, but is likely low on the list. If I were the betting type, which I am not, somewhere in Europe would be the most likely.

Historically, yes, or the equivalent thereof pre bombs and aircraft. In the present sense, which countries might that be? Not Afghanistan, their "government" was knowingly supporting AQ&CO. Not Iraq, their "government" was playing games with the UN inspectors manipulating the UN oil for food program while starving the civilian population and of course playing games with the chemical weapons thing.

No, they didn't, and yet they were attacked by terrorists anyway which should teach them something about the risk of ignoring terrorists just because they don't appear to be a direct threat. Terrorists will inevitably become a direct threat at some point and the longer you ignore the threat, the larger it becomes.

Apparently yours is. I'm in the center bud, and I look left and right and see the wingers and their nonsense. Then I look at the real world which is strikingly different from either of the ones the left and right wingers try to paint. Perhaps you should consider looking past the propaganda of your left wing buddies at the realities of the world.

Pete C.

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